Sunday, October 10, 2010

New Rankings and how the west will be won.

First let me say, I was wrong about Miami.  Their offense played about exactly as I expected - a few missed opportunities, but overall par for the course.  But that defense is awful.  Randy Shannon's team has made progress, but isn't ready to challenge the big boys yet.

Second, kudos to South Carolina, even if I'm going to get awfully tired of hearing about them over the next week (more about this below).

Now for our new WGRF rankings, which may or may not resemble the new AP rankings.  I imagine the top 4-5 will be similar and then there will be big differences below that.

1. Ohio State.
What WGRF thinks: This is the logical move up, from #2 to #1.  Other things have also affected their standing.  First, Miami was exposed by Florida State as not much of a quality opponent.  Second, Illinois demonstrated that they can be competent more than just one "trap" game (as I heard Ohio State fans calling it).  A net even, in my opinion.  This team looks very, very good, especially on Defense.  Pryor throwing for 300+ and not running once (seriously, all of his rushes were sacks in this game) was an impressive display of patience on his end.  I'm not convinced that he is 100% healthy, but I am convinced that he can play lights-out despite the injury.
What Pollsters will think: #1.  They were number two last week so I bump them up since they didn't lose.  Not impressed by the rout of Indiana, routs are expected at this point.

2. Nebraska
What WGRF thinks: That win over Kansas State should not be taken lightly.  Yes, K-State is not an elite opponent.  But that was a good football team, with good offensive execution, that already owned a victory over UCLA - and Nebraska smoked them.  Martinez is a verifiable stud and a legitimate Heisman candidate (to remember for the future, he won't be winning this season with his numbers as of now).  Nebraska should have no problem getting revved up for their next game, which will be Texas.  Missouri, however, is looking like the toughest opponent on their schedule.
What Pollsters will think: #5.  Kansas State is not Stanford, so Oregon is still better based on that win.

3. Oregon
What WGRF thinks: I was ready to bump up Oregon to #1, but I am less than impressed with them falling behind again in the first half (this time to the infamously terrible Wazzu team) and Stanford/USC didn't leave me feeling all that impressed with Pac 10 defenses.  One of these days Oregon is not going to be able to turn it on in the second half, and they're going to lose.  The Stanford game was truly impressive, but I'm tired of hearing the "outscored their opponents in the second half by x" statistic.  See Ohio State v Indiana, Florida State v Miami or Nebraska v KSU.  Take the lead early, build it by halftime, pull away in the second half.  That's the model for a good game of football against an overmatched opponent.
What Pollsters will think: #2.  Oregon is so exciting, should I vote them #1?  They're much more fun to watch than Big 10 football. If only they were in the SEC.

4. Boise St
What WGRF thinks:  Since Boise beat them twice (33-30 and then the hangover v James Madison), Virginia Tech has been solid.  Oregon State just notched a quality win.  U of Nevada at Reno continues to roll.  Boise's schedule looks pretty good, comparable to a Nebraska schedule.  And Boise looks very good.  I could see this team winning an NC - if they get the chance.
What Pollsters will think: #3. Another win over a terrible opponent?  I was too busy watching quality football to pay attention, so I'll keep Boise in stasis - not low enough to show that I'm biased, but not high enough to be dangerous.

5. TCU
What WGRF thinks:  You can't deny this team forever.  This is a very good football team and Andy Dalton is running a smooth offense that should go undefeated until a huge tilt with Utah.
What Pollsters will think: #4 Same as Boise.  I'm not watching this team week to week.  I will drop them below Nebraska/Oklahoma by seasons end.

6. Auburn
What WGRF thinks: This team will probably lose a game to Arkansas or Alabama (or LSU, but I sure hope not).  This ranking is entirely based on South Carolina's win over Alabama.  I will have no problem dropping Auburn behind other teams in subsequent weeks, even if they keep winning.
What Pollsters will think: #7.  I don't want to elevate Auburn over Alabama, but I can't keep a 1 loss SEC team over two undefeated SEC teams (LSU/Auburn).

7. Utah
What WGRF thinks: Rolling through their schedule.  Waiting to see them play TCU.  Starting to think the Utes will win that game and be the team that makes a BCS bowl.
What Pollsters will think: #10.  LSU, Alabama and the like all play a tougher schedule and deserve to be above Utah, even if Utah is probably better (ok, Pollsters may not say the second part).

8. Alabama
What WGRF thinks: Put this team against any other in the NC and I would be on Alabama to not only win, but cover by more than a touchdown.  No team is more talented.  Too bad talent is only half of the element in college football.  Got to keep those emotions in check, I honestly thought Saban would do a better job than that.  Way too early to write this team off, though.  Still chances to gain two quality wins over LSU/Auburn and have the potential for a rematch with South Carolina (though it will probably by Florida) in the SEC championship game.
What Pollsters will think: #9.  Top 1 loss team.  Keep them above Utah (cause I haven't seen them play) and Michigan State (cause they play in the Big 10).

9. Iowa
What WGRF thinks: This team should not have lost that game to Arizona.  But they did, thus why they sit at #9 and not in the top 5 where they belong.  They just might be the ones to beat Ohio State, if Wisconsin can't do it this weekend.
What Pollsters will think: #14.  Not SEC, not undefeated, Arizona just lost. No reason to move them up except that Florida and Miami just lost.  Michigan State will probably jump them.  Stanford, Florida State and South Carolina all could too.

10. Oklahoma
What WGRF thinks: I like this football team.  I just can't ignore the games against Utah St and Cincinnati.  I think this team will win the South, but may drop to Oklahoma State or Texas A&M and I don't think they'll beat Nebraska.
What Pollsters will think: #6.  Nebraska is better, but Oklahoma beat Texas: remember?

Other teams considered: Michigan State, Arkansas, Nevada, LSU (although I don't want to).  The first 3 are good teams, there just isn't enough room.  I can't ignore LSU's wins over Florida/WVU.

Not considering: South Carolina, Florida State.  One week does not, a season, make.

What Pollsters are thinking about South Carolina and why you may see them crack a few top 10s:
Joe: Hey Bob, did you catch that Boise game?
Bob: No, Joe, I was watching Notre Dame v Pittsburgh.  Great game, Notre Dame is really figuring it out - and not just cause they were playing Pittsburgh.
Joe: In fairness, Pittsburgh is awful.  Wait, did you see that South Carolina beat Alabama?
Bob: No.  Wow, that's a great win.  Wait, didn't they beat Georgia??
Joe: Yea, but they lost to Auburn.
Bob: So what!  This team now has beaten Georgia and Alabama!  Who else has two quality wins like that?
Joe: Well, first, Georgia isn't good, and second, several teams do: like Boise and -
Bob: OH MY WORD, DID YOU SEE WHO COACHES THIS TEAM??
Joe: Steve Spurrier, he's been there for years and has really underachie-
Bob: THE OL' BALL COACH, THIS TEAM MUST BE UNBEATABLE!!

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