WGRF College Football Power Poll

Oregon turns it on in the second half, once again, and I want to be impressed.  But why do they continue to struggle in the first half of games?
Auburn rolls an overmatched Ole Miss team.
Michigan State and Missouri fall.
TCU v Utah this week - we're set up for a heck of a finish.  Will be only 4 undefeated teams after next weekend.

1. Boise - What we think: A lot of people are considering Tuesday nights game as signs of Boise's imperfection.  While it is true that Boise is not a perfect football team, they still won their "scare of a game" by 29 points.  Oh, and that's including a TD by their opponent in the final minute.  Boise is fine.  They could still lose to Nevada, but unless they do, they're the best team in the country.
What pollsters will think: #3. (I was wrong about this last week).  Oregon and Auburn are on a collision course.  Boise is a spectator.
2. Oregon - What we think: I don't understand this team (see above).  But I am still impressed by a big win on the road.  I think the hinges could fall off - there are only so many times you can speed past your opponent in the second half, but Oregon looks scary when they turn it on.
What pollsters will think: #1.  Look at that offense!
3. Alabama - What we think: Just lying in wait here, Alabama may need only to win out and they're in over Boise/TCU.
What pollsters will think: #5.  Sometimes not playing is the best thing you can do for your ranking.
4. Auburn - What we think: Another great performance by Cam Newton.  Ole Miss is awful, so it was to be expected.  I just wish this team could play defense - I don't like the prospects of a 100+ pt Auburn/Oregon NC.
What pollsters will think: #2.  Can you imagine an Auburn/Oregon NC???  They'd probably score 100!
5. TCU/Utah - What we think: I realize my back-and-forth on TCU/Utah is getting old, so this week I'll throw them both at #5 in preparation for their showdown.  I still have the feeling that Utah will win, but Baylor's win over Texas and 7-2 record certainly make TCU (45-10 winners over the Bears) look good.
What pollsters will think: TCU #4, Utah #6.  It's possible that Oklahoma passes Utah, but I can't fathom why that would happen.  The ceiling for the MWC champ is #4 imho, so long as Oregon/Boise don't lose and Alabama/Auburn winner takes the SEC crown.
7. Wisconsin - What we think: Another case of a bye week at the right time.  Wisconsin is fresh off of wins over Ohio State and Iowa (both of whom will join them in the top 15 this week), after resting up, they should go unbeaten the rest of the way - let's see if that holds up.
What pollsters will think: #8.  Though Stanford and Ohio State looked very impressive, a team is not hurt in its bye week and Wisconsin has two of the best wins in the country right now.
8. Ohio State - What we think: It's not like Minnesota is a good football team, so while the final margin is very impressive, giving up big passing yards in the first half is not.  Ohio State looks like one of the top 10 teams, but the defense is banged up, and what's up with the Pryor interception, 1st and goal at the 2?
What pollsters will think: #9.  Missouri and Michigan State were considered frauds and after being exposed will drop out of the top 10, letting Ohio State rise into it again.  LSU could pass them (though for no real reason), setting up a big game with Alabama this week.
9. Oklahoma - What we think: Much like Ohio State above.  I'm not impressed with a big win over Colorado, and with each week that passes, Oklahoma's schedule is looking weaker and weaker.  Texas has 4 losses, FSU fell to NC State, Missouri got crushed by Nebraska.  Air Force might be Oklahoma's best win so far, and that teams has 4 losses.
What pollsters will think: #7.  Oklahoma will continue to rise in the rankings with other team's losses and could be back in it before even playing the Big 12 championship game.
10. Stanford - What we think: I'm having a hard time figuring out the Pac 10, but one thing seems clear.  Stanford is better than every team but Oregon, and is a legitimate force that (should they make one) can beat any team in a BCS bowl.
What pollsters will think: #11.  (Maybe even #12 if Nebraska jumps them).  Stanford has looked very good, but they don't play in the SEC and they aren't playing big names every week (which in pollsters mind is the same thing), so their upward mobility is limited and only based on other teams losses.

Next six: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, LSU, Arizona, Missouri
Not considered: Oklahoma State and the three stooges of the SEC, that are only ranked because of conference affiliation - Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State

-Jabari

What we're watching today

Big day in college football with plenty of good teams playing on the road.  The one's I'm paying attention to:

Iowa over Michigan State.  Michigan State is a great football team, but had serious struggles last week at Northwestern.  Iowa is great at home and despite the loss last week to Wisconsin, still has plenty to play for.  Their defense is capable of holding Michigan State in check and they should ride their emotions to victory.
21-17

USC over Oregon.  I don't want to pick this game.  Oregon is too good and USC is too young, but that's exactly why it seems like it will happen.  Oregon is dominant at home, but how can they fare in the coliseum?  Not well I think, in a shoot out.
42-40

Nebraska over Missouri.  I may look like a fool tomorrow for jumping on the upset bandwagon, but it smells like everyone is losing today.  Missouri had a phenomenal win last week against Oklahoma, but that was at home.  Now they go to Lincoln, where few come out happy.  Blackshirts will come after Gabbert.  Nebraska going away.
33-17

WGRF Power Poll

Here at WGRF, we were very impressed by Missouri, Auburn and Wisconsin this week.  We are also perplexed by Cal.  With little time this week, here is the abridged power poll.

1. Boise - what we think: hoping they make the NC this year, this is the year they can win it.
what pollsters will think: #3.  Oregon remains at 1, Auburn beat LSU so they must be 2 (also they're in the SEC, so it's just obvious).
2. Oregon - what we think: keep rolling, rolling, rolling.  Hope it doesn't come crashing down v USC like ESPN is going to advertise all week.
what pollsters will think: #1.  Love the offense.  Scoring in a minute or less is exactly what pollsters like to see.
3. Alabama - what we think: so they have a loss.  they play Auburn, so I have no problem ranking them ahead of Auburn before that game is played.  I have a hard time putting other teams ahead of them, because I think Alabama would win 6+ out of ten on a neutral field against anyone ranked below them.
what pollsters will think: #6. (not positive here, should be close between Bama/Missouri).  Since they're in the SEC they will still remain above undefeated teams (which is usually the main criteria in pollsters ranking logic).
4. Auburn - what we think: Great win over LSU.  That's enough to make them the second best team in the SEC (imho).  Yes, I know they beat USeC who beat Bama....
what pollsters will think: #2.  CAM NEWTON = TIM TEBOW!!!
5. Michigan State - what we think: How does that Wisconsin win look now?  Pretty good.  Great matchup this week at Iowa.
what pollsters will think: #5.  Too bad they don't play Ohio State... no chance at #2 without a good deal of losses.
6. Utah - what we think: How does that Iowa State win look now?  Pretty mediocre (just wanted to take a shot at Texas here).  Getting the feeling that Utah will beat TCU, so I swapped them in the rankings - knowing that teams will play eachother makes this ranking TBD.
what pollsters will think: #8.  Jumped by Mizzou because a win over Oklahoma is more impressive than anything Utah has done.
7. Wisconsin - what we think: Huge win over Iowa (on the road no less).  Ohio State victory should also resonate and Michigan State loss isn't so bad.
What pollsters will think: #9?  (Either LSU or Oklahoma could stay above Wisconsin and Missouri almost certainly jumps them).  Plodding Big 10 team can win against Iowa but would get smoked by (insert flashy offense here).
8. Missouri - what we think: you beat Oklahoma, consider us impressed.  Beat Nebraska next week and we'll jump all over the bandwagon.
what pollsters will think: #7.  A new undefeated Cinderella we can adore!
9. TCU - what we think: well... not much really.  It's still a wait and see until the game against Utah, but Baylor is quietly putting up a good record after getting thumped by TCU.
what pollsters will think: #4.  Last week it was Oklahoma, this week it's Auburn that is clearly better than TCU for playing in a tougher conference.
10. Ohio State - what we think: close between them and Oklahoma.  Oklahoma has a better win (FSU > Miami), but OSU has a better loss (Wisconsin > Missouri) and has looked awfully impressive in every home game.
what pollsters will think: #10?  (LSU could stay in front of them and Missouri almost certainly jumps them).  Great win over... Purdue?  Like that's impressive.  Call when you beat Iowa (unless they lose to MSU too).

Next five: Oklahoma, Stanford, Nebraska, Iowa, LSU
Not considered: Arizona, Florida State

WGRF College Football Power Poll and a top rank jinx?

I'm not going to suggest that 2010 = 2007 or that we should prepare for a season of #1 upsets, but in the last two weeks, the two strongest looking teams from the pre-season went on the road and dropped in eerily similar fashions.

Both spotted their opponents a big first half lead.  Both surged back and looked spectacular in doing so.  Both gave up further scores to lose by double digits.  Will Oregon fall next week?  I doubt it, but it's possible.

My rankings last week featured a #1 and #2 that both took losses (Ohio State and Nebraska).  In my case, I don't feel this invalidates the ranking - my goal is not to predict which teams will win out, but to order them based on games played up to that point.  Each week is a new data-point, and each week the rankings get closer to being correct.

1. Boise State.  What WGRF thinks: Boise is the best team in the country.  Yes, Oregon State just lost and that hurts a bit.  Yes, Nevada just lost, so there will be no marquee match-up late in the season.  Should have ranked them number one a few weeks ago.  What Pollsters will think: #2 (some will boost Boise to #1, I'd imagine especially in the AP poll) Team ahead of them loses, I will bump them up.  Yes, they're at #2, but Oklahoma is on the rise and I can always put them or the winner of Auburn/LSU above Boise later in the season, citing schedule strength.

2. Oklahoma.  What WGRF thinks: Should we jump all over this bandwagon based off of results against Iowa State? (who Utah hung 60+ on last week).  Why not.  I still think Landry Jones is going to foul up a game for the Sooners at some point, but for now the team is rolling.  Two match-ups with undefeateds left (Mizzou this week and Ok State later).  What Pollsters will think: #4.  (I imagine it could be very close between TCU/Oklahoma)  Strong Big 12 team, undefeated, big name - will continue to climb the rankings if they keep winning, even if teams ahead don't lose.

3. Oregon. What WGRF thinks: Love the offense, hate the defense.  Plus, they play in the toughest conference in the nation.  Played their only sure victory this past week (Bye).  What Pollsters will think: #1.  If you're #2 and #1 loses, I will bump you to #1.  First time Oregon has ever been there.  We won't vote them an overwhelming #1 because Oklahoma has been just as impressive and has a bigger name.

4. Alabama.  What WGRF thinks: Back to power running, back to defense.  I wanted to jump on the writing this team off bandwagon last week, but an Ohio State loss is an open door for Bama to get back in it.  I'm betting on spirited football from this team down the stretch.  But is the schedule too brutal?  What Pollsters will think: #6.  Not above Auburn, but above LSU.  Doesn't matter what order with those three teams as they all will play.

5. Auburn.  What WGRF thinks: Not exactly impressed with the video game performance against Arkansas - just awful defense all around.  But like the resolve and how once they turned it on, they didn't stop scoring - 28 points in the 4th, wow.  What Pollsters will think: #5.  The world is right again with a top 5 SEC team.  Cam Newton is the new Heisman front runner.

6. Michigan State.  What WGRF thinks: Although I am fully prepared for them to lose a trap game this coming weekend at Northwestern, I reward this team for Wisconsin over Ohio State like I rewarded Auburn for South Carolina over Alabama.  Get past Northwestern and there is still Iowa and a potentially dangerous Purdue.  What Pollsters will think: #8.  Jumping Utah and sliding up past Ohio State (who should fall further than Alabama did, considering voter perceptions of each team at the time of the loss).

7. TCU.  What WGRF thinks: A little slow to start, but got to roaring.  Still excited for the match-up with Utah.  Love Dalton's poise.  What Pollsters will think: #3 (reluctantly) Who did they play again?  I am fully prepared to drop them below Oklahoma, Auburn/LSU winner next week.

8. Stanford. What WGRF thinks: The loss to Oregon featured an atrocious second half defense and the win against USC wasn't inspiring, but this is a tremendous football team.  I would not be surprised if they close out with only one more loss (games at Washington and home v Oregon State and Arizona will be the tough ones) or even win out from here.  What Pollsters will think: #12.  Move up after the bye week, but either behind Nebraska or jumped by Wisconsin.

9. Wisconsin. What WGRF thinks: The impressive thing is not the win, but how the game was won.  If they game had finished 21-18 with Wisconsin clinging to that lead they put up in the first half, I would not be impressed.  Rather, Wisconsin pushed Ohio State around late in the 4th quarter to add 10 points and finish it off.  That O-Line is something to behold.  What Pollsters will think: #11.  Florida State struggles and Arizona loss make this jump easier.  Still behind Ohio State, which doesn't make much sense.

10. LSU.  What WGRF thinks: Wins over UNC and WVU in the nonconference.  Still the bulk of an SEC West schedule to go.  This team will finish with 2-3 losses (unless Miles really did sell his soul), but for now are worthy of #10.  What Pollsters will think: #7.  Undefeated SEC team?  Of course they deserve a top 10 ranking - doesn't matter that they have yet to play the meat of their schedule.

Next five: Utah, Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska, Missouri

Not considered: Florida State, Arizona

What We're Watching Today

Michigan State over Illinois

I've heard some talk recently about Illinois having a chance to pull the upset here, but I just don't see it.  Neither Ohio State nor Penn State could run the ball that well on the Illini, but neither of those teams have been running so well this season at all.  Michigan State is very physical and should take it right to the Illini.

40-21

Arkansas over Auburn

Auburn has had a special season thus far, but it's going to end sometime.  This team is not a championship contender and Arkansas' offense should show why.  Cam Newton should keep it close, but won't be able to pull it out.

24-20

Ohio State over Wisconsin

This should be a close game.  It always is when Ohio State plays in Madison (or anywhere on the road, it seems).  Wisconsin's O-line may just push the buckeyes defense around.  If Pryor turns the ball over, I think Wisconsin will win this game.  Rather, I think he'll play safe and have an unspectacular day. Probably to the tune of 150 passing yards and 50 rushing.

Ohio State 27-21

Other things to look for:

Will Missouri validate their ranking today?  Or fall against Texas A&M.  I'd pick the Aggies for the upset here.

Denard Robinson to not carry his team against the best defense they've faced all year.  I'm not sure if they'll gain 300 yards as a team.

Kentucky to scare South Carolina.

New Rankings and how the west will be won.

First let me say, I was wrong about Miami.  Their offense played about exactly as I expected - a few missed opportunities, but overall par for the course.  But that defense is awful.  Randy Shannon's team has made progress, but isn't ready to challenge the big boys yet.

Second, kudos to South Carolina, even if I'm going to get awfully tired of hearing about them over the next week (more about this below).

Now for our new WGRF rankings, which may or may not resemble the new AP rankings.  I imagine the top 4-5 will be similar and then there will be big differences below that.

1. Ohio State.
What WGRF thinks: This is the logical move up, from #2 to #1.  Other things have also affected their standing.  First, Miami was exposed by Florida State as not much of a quality opponent.  Second, Illinois demonstrated that they can be competent more than just one "trap" game (as I heard Ohio State fans calling it).  A net even, in my opinion.  This team looks very, very good, especially on Defense.  Pryor throwing for 300+ and not running once (seriously, all of his rushes were sacks in this game) was an impressive display of patience on his end.  I'm not convinced that he is 100% healthy, but I am convinced that he can play lights-out despite the injury.
What Pollsters will think: #1.  They were number two last week so I bump them up since they didn't lose.  Not impressed by the rout of Indiana, routs are expected at this point.

2. Nebraska
What WGRF thinks: That win over Kansas State should not be taken lightly.  Yes, K-State is not an elite opponent.  But that was a good football team, with good offensive execution, that already owned a victory over UCLA - and Nebraska smoked them.  Martinez is a verifiable stud and a legitimate Heisman candidate (to remember for the future, he won't be winning this season with his numbers as of now).  Nebraska should have no problem getting revved up for their next game, which will be Texas.  Missouri, however, is looking like the toughest opponent on their schedule.
What Pollsters will think: #5.  Kansas State is not Stanford, so Oregon is still better based on that win.

3. Oregon
What WGRF thinks: I was ready to bump up Oregon to #1, but I am less than impressed with them falling behind again in the first half (this time to the infamously terrible Wazzu team) and Stanford/USC didn't leave me feeling all that impressed with Pac 10 defenses.  One of these days Oregon is not going to be able to turn it on in the second half, and they're going to lose.  The Stanford game was truly impressive, but I'm tired of hearing the "outscored their opponents in the second half by x" statistic.  See Ohio State v Indiana, Florida State v Miami or Nebraska v KSU.  Take the lead early, build it by halftime, pull away in the second half.  That's the model for a good game of football against an overmatched opponent.
What Pollsters will think: #2.  Oregon is so exciting, should I vote them #1?  They're much more fun to watch than Big 10 football. If only they were in the SEC.

4. Boise St
What WGRF thinks:  Since Boise beat them twice (33-30 and then the hangover v James Madison), Virginia Tech has been solid.  Oregon State just notched a quality win.  U of Nevada at Reno continues to roll.  Boise's schedule looks pretty good, comparable to a Nebraska schedule.  And Boise looks very good.  I could see this team winning an NC - if they get the chance.
What Pollsters will think: #3. Another win over a terrible opponent?  I was too busy watching quality football to pay attention, so I'll keep Boise in stasis - not low enough to show that I'm biased, but not high enough to be dangerous.

5. TCU
What WGRF thinks:  You can't deny this team forever.  This is a very good football team and Andy Dalton is running a smooth offense that should go undefeated until a huge tilt with Utah.
What Pollsters will think: #4 Same as Boise.  I'm not watching this team week to week.  I will drop them below Nebraska/Oklahoma by seasons end.

6. Auburn
What WGRF thinks: This team will probably lose a game to Arkansas or Alabama (or LSU, but I sure hope not).  This ranking is entirely based on South Carolina's win over Alabama.  I will have no problem dropping Auburn behind other teams in subsequent weeks, even if they keep winning.
What Pollsters will think: #7.  I don't want to elevate Auburn over Alabama, but I can't keep a 1 loss SEC team over two undefeated SEC teams (LSU/Auburn).

7. Utah
What WGRF thinks: Rolling through their schedule.  Waiting to see them play TCU.  Starting to think the Utes will win that game and be the team that makes a BCS bowl.
What Pollsters will think: #10.  LSU, Alabama and the like all play a tougher schedule and deserve to be above Utah, even if Utah is probably better (ok, Pollsters may not say the second part).

8. Alabama
What WGRF thinks: Put this team against any other in the NC and I would be on Alabama to not only win, but cover by more than a touchdown.  No team is more talented.  Too bad talent is only half of the element in college football.  Got to keep those emotions in check, I honestly thought Saban would do a better job than that.  Way too early to write this team off, though.  Still chances to gain two quality wins over LSU/Auburn and have the potential for a rematch with South Carolina (though it will probably by Florida) in the SEC championship game.
What Pollsters will think: #9.  Top 1 loss team.  Keep them above Utah (cause I haven't seen them play) and Michigan State (cause they play in the Big 10).

9. Iowa
What WGRF thinks: This team should not have lost that game to Arizona.  But they did, thus why they sit at #9 and not in the top 5 where they belong.  They just might be the ones to beat Ohio State, if Wisconsin can't do it this weekend.
What Pollsters will think: #14.  Not SEC, not undefeated, Arizona just lost. No reason to move them up except that Florida and Miami just lost.  Michigan State will probably jump them.  Stanford, Florida State and South Carolina all could too.

10. Oklahoma
What WGRF thinks: I like this football team.  I just can't ignore the games against Utah St and Cincinnati.  I think this team will win the South, but may drop to Oklahoma State or Texas A&M and I don't think they'll beat Nebraska.
What Pollsters will think: #6.  Nebraska is better, but Oklahoma beat Texas: remember?

Other teams considered: Michigan State, Arkansas, Nevada, LSU (although I don't want to).  The first 3 are good teams, there just isn't enough room.  I can't ignore LSU's wins over Florida/WVU.

Not considering: South Carolina, Florida State.  One week does not, a season, make.

What Pollsters are thinking about South Carolina and why you may see them crack a few top 10s:
Joe: Hey Bob, did you catch that Boise game?
Bob: No, Joe, I was watching Notre Dame v Pittsburgh.  Great game, Notre Dame is really figuring it out - and not just cause they were playing Pittsburgh.
Joe: In fairness, Pittsburgh is awful.  Wait, did you see that South Carolina beat Alabama?
Bob: No.  Wow, that's a great win.  Wait, didn't they beat Georgia??
Joe: Yea, but they lost to Auburn.
Bob: So what!  This team now has beaten Georgia and Alabama!  Who else has two quality wins like that?
Joe: Well, first, Georgia isn't good, and second, several teams do: like Boise and -
Bob: OH MY WORD, DID YOU SEE WHO COACHES THIS TEAM??
Joe: Steve Spurrier, he's been there for years and has really underachie-
Bob: THE OL' BALL COACH, THIS TEAM MUST BE UNBEATABLE!!

What we're watching today

Here at WGRF, we've been far too busy.  And in the case of Raffy, I don't even know where he has gone.  But today we get to catch a few games.  Here's what we will be watching:

Michigan State over Michigan
I like DR, I really do.  He's fast, he has great vision and is surprisingly efficient.  But he's also reckless.  I have this gut feeling that one of these hits he takes is going to knock him out of the game.  Even if he stays in, it will have to take a toll on him.  Very little defense in this game though.
MSU 42 - Mich 34

Miami over Florida State
This game is the ACC title game.  Well except for Virginia Tech still hanging around there...  It's really not as important of a game as it's being made out to be.  Neither of these teams is as good as advertised, but I have much more faith in Miami's defense than FSU's.  Jacory Harris only 2 picks and:
Miami 28 - FSU 13

Other things to look for:
Alabama letdown v South Carolina (they will win, but it won't be as perfect as last week).
Les Miles botches the Florida game and Karma is even.
Oregon State upsetting Arizona.  Boise and TCU collectively rejoicing.