Apologies for the grand delay in posting.
News that you already know about:
Cam Newton won the Heisman but was left off of the Writer's All America team. There seems to be some question as to whether a player should win the Heisman because of a clause in the mission statement of that award, stating that the winner should show "integrity" in their excellence. Cam Newton was the best player in College Football this year, this is tough to argue - though Andrew Luck was outstanding as well. His father was clearly guilty of shopping his son's services and I realize that doesn't implicate Newton or devalue the season that he had. However, it remains to be seen how much Newton knew about his father's actions. Newton will be in the NFL next year, and in some time in the next year or two we will finally hear the full story. I expect Newton to keep his Heisman, but I think he was at least somewhat cognizant of his father's actions and Auburn may even be hit with some minor sanctions (self-inflicted, of course, to preempt NCAA action).
Auburn is playing Oregon for the NC. I'm excited for this game, although I consider it one of the worst championships in recent memory. This was clearly a year of few, if any, great teams. Oregon played a very weak schedule (not necessarily their fault, when they scheduled a game @ Tennessee, it seemed like a very tough out) and doesn't have a championship defense. Auburn's schedule looks much tougher than it was (thanks to a pro-SEC swing in the polls for the year, not sure the exact # of spots for the SEC, I'd guess that each team is about +3, on average, from where they "should" be). Auburn's defense is also hardly elite. Both have a great win - Oregon over Stanford, Auburn with a big comeback against Bama.
My hunch is that Oregon will win this game, they have better athletes and played in a tougher conference, so they should be better tested. QB play is very important, which is the biggest argument for Auburn, but I don't see the Tigers being able to be balanced on offense, and if Oregon get's a lead, then it will be Newton every play. He can do well in that regard, but I wonder if he can keep up when his defense gives up score after score.
Now for the power poll (as a caveat, I can admit when I'm wrong, Boise was not the best team in the country, though I don't fault them too much for a road loss to a great team).
1. Oregon
2. Auburn
3. Wisconsin
4. Stanford
5. Ohio State
6. TCU
7. Boise
8. Arkansas
9. Oklahoma
10. Nevada
Next five: Texas A&M, Michigan State, LSU, Alabama, Virginia Tech
Not considered: South Carolina
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Sunday, November 21, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll
1. Boise
After the beatdown of Fresno, people are starting to realize how good this team is. If they beat Nevada they'll be ready to take on Oregon once Auburn stumbles.
2. Oregon
A week off was well earned after gutting out a victory at Cal without any offense. Now preparation for Arizona, which hasn't looked as good as it's ranking indicates. Oregon should win out, but Oregon State's win over USC means there may be two more tough games ahead on the road to the NC.
3. Auburn
Cam Newton's dad asked for money for his son to play football. This theory is gaining a lot of believers. Whether any money was ever given... unclear. Whether Auburn can fend off the distractions and a great Alabama squad? Doubtful.
4. Wisconsin
Some kind of roll this team is on right now. I'm not terribly impressed with anyone scoring on Michigan, but Wisconsin gave up 28 points on the road and still rolled to an easy win. If I'm Boise, I don't know if I'd rather play Oregon for a national championship or Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, the Badgers may just finish the season in the top 3.
5. LSU
An underwhelming effort against Ole Miss. How does this team only have one loss? Is there any magic left to play a good Arkansas team?
6. Ohio State
Is Terrelle Pryor a savior or a scrub? Depends on the quarter, I guess. Sometimes even depends on the play. Led a great drive to take the lead, threw a bad pick to give up the lead, then led a final drive (with a run on 4th and 10 to pick up a first) to win it.
7. TCU
This team dropping in my rankings is just residuals from the Utah game against Notre Dame, as well as another big loss by Baylor (TCU's best win, arguably).
8. Stanford
Looked a heck of a lot better than Oregon when playing Cal. Oregon State up next - are the Beavs making their late push? There's no chance they could win the Pac 10, but they can definitely spoil a couple of special seasons with back-to-backs against Stanford and Oregon.
9. Alabama
This is it. No SEC championship, no national championship. Just the Iron Bowl. Alabama has one game to come out and prove that they really were the best team in the NCAA this year.
10. Oklahoma State
This spot belongs to Texas A&M for two wins over top 10 opponents in the last 3 weeks, but since these rankings are comprehensive and not just based on the last couple weeks of play, I give Ok State the nod with the head-to-head win and two less losses (though of course, Ok State didn't play Missouri or Arkansas...)
Next five:
Arkansas, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Nebraska
Not considered:
South Carolina
After the beatdown of Fresno, people are starting to realize how good this team is. If they beat Nevada they'll be ready to take on Oregon once Auburn stumbles.
2. Oregon
A week off was well earned after gutting out a victory at Cal without any offense. Now preparation for Arizona, which hasn't looked as good as it's ranking indicates. Oregon should win out, but Oregon State's win over USC means there may be two more tough games ahead on the road to the NC.
3. Auburn
Cam Newton's dad asked for money for his son to play football. This theory is gaining a lot of believers. Whether any money was ever given... unclear. Whether Auburn can fend off the distractions and a great Alabama squad? Doubtful.
4. Wisconsin
Some kind of roll this team is on right now. I'm not terribly impressed with anyone scoring on Michigan, but Wisconsin gave up 28 points on the road and still rolled to an easy win. If I'm Boise, I don't know if I'd rather play Oregon for a national championship or Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, the Badgers may just finish the season in the top 3.
5. LSU
An underwhelming effort against Ole Miss. How does this team only have one loss? Is there any magic left to play a good Arkansas team?
6. Ohio State
Is Terrelle Pryor a savior or a scrub? Depends on the quarter, I guess. Sometimes even depends on the play. Led a great drive to take the lead, threw a bad pick to give up the lead, then led a final drive (with a run on 4th and 10 to pick up a first) to win it.
7. TCU
This team dropping in my rankings is just residuals from the Utah game against Notre Dame, as well as another big loss by Baylor (TCU's best win, arguably).
8. Stanford
Looked a heck of a lot better than Oregon when playing Cal. Oregon State up next - are the Beavs making their late push? There's no chance they could win the Pac 10, but they can definitely spoil a couple of special seasons with back-to-backs against Stanford and Oregon.
9. Alabama
This is it. No SEC championship, no national championship. Just the Iron Bowl. Alabama has one game to come out and prove that they really were the best team in the NCAA this year.
10. Oklahoma State
This spot belongs to Texas A&M for two wins over top 10 opponents in the last 3 weeks, but since these rankings are comprehensive and not just based on the last couple weeks of play, I give Ok State the nod with the head-to-head win and two less losses (though of course, Ok State didn't play Missouri or Arkansas...)
Next five:
Arkansas, Texas A&M, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Nebraska
Not considered:
South Carolina
Sunday, November 14, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll
Without discussing what pollsters will think of the teams this week, here is my top 10:
1. Boise
Looks like Boise might have a pretty tough couple of games coming up, though neither Fresno nor Nevada can play any defense. This team continues to blow through (an admittedly awful schedule). The next two games will be two of the tougher ones and should give some insight into this team. A couple of one td games won't impress anybody - Boise has to continue to be dominant. Virginia Tech makes this team look good.
2. Oregon
Struggled mightily with Cal on the road. Shouldn't have that issue with Arizona or Oregon State, though you never know in the Civil War. Only 3 Pac 10 teams may go to bowls this year (USC is ineligible). For a league that I thought was the best, that's just awful.
3. Auburn
Cam Newton cheated. Probably. Maybe? Doesn't matter in terms of how this NC or the Heisman race should shape up. If Auburn finishes with wins in the Iron Bowl and SEC championship game, they're in. Cam Newton should win the Heisman with the way he is playing. The distractions may do this team in, however, against Alabama.
4. LSU
The Tigers get this spot for the win over Alabama (a team which I still think will beat Auburn). The body of work is impressive even if the final scores were not always decisive.
5. TCU
I was wrong about Utah and I can admit it. Actually pretty glad I missed last week (and gained some perspective with Utah's loss to ND) otherwise I may have bumped TCU all the way to #1/2 with the way they dominated the Ute's. TCU is fresh off a bit of a struggle with San Diego State (a good football team) and no longer has a quality win. With only one game left against one of the worst teams in FBS football, I think they've reached their peak in the BCS and expect Boise to pass them.
6. Wisconsin
83 points? It was against Indiana, so I understand how it happened. Except for the fact that Wisconsin doesn't pass too terribly often. Was the clock working right? This team may be better than LSU (and I would love to see that game) but I don't think their resume is as good.
7. Ohio State
Pretty much played out their game as I thought they would. They kind of fooled around for the first half before turning it on. I thought the game would end with 17-14 victory when Pryor threw a foolish interception in the red zone. Little did I know that Ohio State would tack on tds on a tipped pass, an interception return (2nd of the game for a TD) and another drive.
8. Nebraska
The Big 12 doesn't make any sense this year. At least Nebraska keeps winning to hold it together. Oh, they're leaving next year? Wouldn't be surprised if A&M beats them next week. Or if Nebraska dominates.
9. Stanford
Is Arizona State really that good? They have three of the best losses in the country and could've won match-ups with Oregon State and USC as well, but got waxed by Cal @ Berkeley. After how Oregon faired at Cal, I'm wondering if Stanford's struggles against ASU will carry to a loss next week.
10. Alabama
Once they beat Auburn I'll bump them up considerably. And if they don't... I clearly have a bias towards keeping this team high in the rankings because I think they can beat any other team (and can beat them soundly), so I don't know. It is interesting to me that an Auburn loss and South Carolina loss (nonconference) still would result in an Auburn v South Carolina SEC championship game. I also think it will probably happen that way.
Next five: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Not considered: Virginia Tech, South Carolina
- Jabari
1. Boise
Looks like Boise might have a pretty tough couple of games coming up, though neither Fresno nor Nevada can play any defense. This team continues to blow through (an admittedly awful schedule). The next two games will be two of the tougher ones and should give some insight into this team. A couple of one td games won't impress anybody - Boise has to continue to be dominant. Virginia Tech makes this team look good.
2. Oregon
Struggled mightily with Cal on the road. Shouldn't have that issue with Arizona or Oregon State, though you never know in the Civil War. Only 3 Pac 10 teams may go to bowls this year (USC is ineligible). For a league that I thought was the best, that's just awful.
3. Auburn
Cam Newton cheated. Probably. Maybe? Doesn't matter in terms of how this NC or the Heisman race should shape up. If Auburn finishes with wins in the Iron Bowl and SEC championship game, they're in. Cam Newton should win the Heisman with the way he is playing. The distractions may do this team in, however, against Alabama.
4. LSU
The Tigers get this spot for the win over Alabama (a team which I still think will beat Auburn). The body of work is impressive even if the final scores were not always decisive.
5. TCU
I was wrong about Utah and I can admit it. Actually pretty glad I missed last week (and gained some perspective with Utah's loss to ND) otherwise I may have bumped TCU all the way to #1/2 with the way they dominated the Ute's. TCU is fresh off a bit of a struggle with San Diego State (a good football team) and no longer has a quality win. With only one game left against one of the worst teams in FBS football, I think they've reached their peak in the BCS and expect Boise to pass them.
6. Wisconsin
83 points? It was against Indiana, so I understand how it happened. Except for the fact that Wisconsin doesn't pass too terribly often. Was the clock working right? This team may be better than LSU (and I would love to see that game) but I don't think their resume is as good.
7. Ohio State
Pretty much played out their game as I thought they would. They kind of fooled around for the first half before turning it on. I thought the game would end with 17-14 victory when Pryor threw a foolish interception in the red zone. Little did I know that Ohio State would tack on tds on a tipped pass, an interception return (2nd of the game for a TD) and another drive.
8. Nebraska
The Big 12 doesn't make any sense this year. At least Nebraska keeps winning to hold it together. Oh, they're leaving next year? Wouldn't be surprised if A&M beats them next week. Or if Nebraska dominates.
9. Stanford
Is Arizona State really that good? They have three of the best losses in the country and could've won match-ups with Oregon State and USC as well, but got waxed by Cal @ Berkeley. After how Oregon faired at Cal, I'm wondering if Stanford's struggles against ASU will carry to a loss next week.
10. Alabama
Once they beat Auburn I'll bump them up considerably. And if they don't... I clearly have a bias towards keeping this team high in the rankings because I think they can beat any other team (and can beat them soundly), so I don't know. It is interesting to me that an Auburn loss and South Carolina loss (nonconference) still would result in an Auburn v South Carolina SEC championship game. I also think it will probably happen that way.
Next five: Michigan State, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Not considered: Virginia Tech, South Carolina
- Jabari
Saturday, November 13, 2010
What We're Watching Today
Missouri over Kansas State.
I don't care who wins this game. I think Missouri has the firepower that they could blow out KSU, but if the Wildcats control the clock, it could be a real tight affair going into the 4th. Final score, 35-22
Ohio State over Penn State.
The Jim Tressel stat of being 2-4 after bye weeks is baffling. Penn State has looked better against lesser competition, Northwestern is pretty good, but let us not forget that they struggled to beat Vandy and fell to Purdue. Penn State should keep it interesting for a while before the Ohio State defense gets to that QB. Final score, 31-14.
Bonus: Over-under 10 times we'll hear PSU's QB called McLovin during the broadcast today?
Cal over Oregon.
I'm not the first to suggest this. Cal is superb at home (while rotten on the road) and Oregon has Arizona next week. The Ducks may be too good for this, and Auburn looks like an even more likely candidate to slip-up amidst the Cam Newton drama, but I get the feeling Oregon doesn't get out of Berkeley without being bloodied up a bit. Final score, 42-40
Sunday, October 31, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll
Oregon turns it on in the second half, once again, and I want to be impressed. But why do they continue to struggle in the first half of games?
Auburn rolls an overmatched Ole Miss team.
Michigan State and Missouri fall.
TCU v Utah this week - we're set up for a heck of a finish. Will be only 4 undefeated teams after next weekend.
1. Boise - What we think: A lot of people are considering Tuesday nights game as signs of Boise's imperfection. While it is true that Boise is not a perfect football team, they still won their "scare of a game" by 29 points. Oh, and that's including a TD by their opponent in the final minute. Boise is fine. They could still lose to Nevada, but unless they do, they're the best team in the country.
What pollsters will think: #3. (I was wrong about this last week). Oregon and Auburn are on a collision course. Boise is a spectator.
2. Oregon - What we think: I don't understand this team (see above). But I am still impressed by a big win on the road. I think the hinges could fall off - there are only so many times you can speed past your opponent in the second half, but Oregon looks scary when they turn it on.
What pollsters will think: #1. Look at that offense!
3. Alabama - What we think: Just lying in wait here, Alabama may need only to win out and they're in over Boise/TCU.
What pollsters will think: #5. Sometimes not playing is the best thing you can do for your ranking.
4. Auburn - What we think: Another great performance by Cam Newton. Ole Miss is awful, so it was to be expected. I just wish this team could play defense - I don't like the prospects of a 100+ pt Auburn/Oregon NC.
What pollsters will think: #2. Can you imagine an Auburn/Oregon NC??? They'd probably score 100!
5. TCU/Utah - What we think: I realize my back-and-forth on TCU/Utah is getting old, so this week I'll throw them both at #5 in preparation for their showdown. I still have the feeling that Utah will win, but Baylor's win over Texas and 7-2 record certainly make TCU (45-10 winners over the Bears) look good.
What pollsters will think: TCU #4, Utah #6. It's possible that Oklahoma passes Utah, but I can't fathom why that would happen. The ceiling for the MWC champ is #4 imho, so long as Oregon/Boise don't lose and Alabama/Auburn winner takes the SEC crown.
7. Wisconsin - What we think: Another case of a bye week at the right time. Wisconsin is fresh off of wins over Ohio State and Iowa (both of whom will join them in the top 15 this week), after resting up, they should go unbeaten the rest of the way - let's see if that holds up.
What pollsters will think: #8. Though Stanford and Ohio State looked very impressive, a team is not hurt in its bye week and Wisconsin has two of the best wins in the country right now.
8. Ohio State - What we think: It's not like Minnesota is a good football team, so while the final margin is very impressive, giving up big passing yards in the first half is not. Ohio State looks like one of the top 10 teams, but the defense is banged up, and what's up with the Pryor interception, 1st and goal at the 2?
What pollsters will think: #9. Missouri and Michigan State were considered frauds and after being exposed will drop out of the top 10, letting Ohio State rise into it again. LSU could pass them (though for no real reason), setting up a big game with Alabama this week.
9. Oklahoma - What we think: Much like Ohio State above. I'm not impressed with a big win over Colorado, and with each week that passes, Oklahoma's schedule is looking weaker and weaker. Texas has 4 losses, FSU fell to NC State, Missouri got crushed by Nebraska. Air Force might be Oklahoma's best win so far, and that teams has 4 losses.
What pollsters will think: #7. Oklahoma will continue to rise in the rankings with other team's losses and could be back in it before even playing the Big 12 championship game.
10. Stanford - What we think: I'm having a hard time figuring out the Pac 10, but one thing seems clear. Stanford is better than every team but Oregon, and is a legitimate force that (should they make one) can beat any team in a BCS bowl.
What pollsters will think: #11. (Maybe even #12 if Nebraska jumps them). Stanford has looked very good, but they don't play in the SEC and they aren't playing big names every week (which in pollsters mind is the same thing), so their upward mobility is limited and only based on other teams losses.
Next six: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, LSU, Arizona, Missouri
Not considered: Oklahoma State and the three stooges of the SEC, that are only ranked because of conference affiliation - Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State
-Jabari
Auburn rolls an overmatched Ole Miss team.
Michigan State and Missouri fall.
TCU v Utah this week - we're set up for a heck of a finish. Will be only 4 undefeated teams after next weekend.
1. Boise - What we think: A lot of people are considering Tuesday nights game as signs of Boise's imperfection. While it is true that Boise is not a perfect football team, they still won their "scare of a game" by 29 points. Oh, and that's including a TD by their opponent in the final minute. Boise is fine. They could still lose to Nevada, but unless they do, they're the best team in the country.
What pollsters will think: #3. (I was wrong about this last week). Oregon and Auburn are on a collision course. Boise is a spectator.
2. Oregon - What we think: I don't understand this team (see above). But I am still impressed by a big win on the road. I think the hinges could fall off - there are only so many times you can speed past your opponent in the second half, but Oregon looks scary when they turn it on.
What pollsters will think: #1. Look at that offense!
3. Alabama - What we think: Just lying in wait here, Alabama may need only to win out and they're in over Boise/TCU.
What pollsters will think: #5. Sometimes not playing is the best thing you can do for your ranking.
4. Auburn - What we think: Another great performance by Cam Newton. Ole Miss is awful, so it was to be expected. I just wish this team could play defense - I don't like the prospects of a 100+ pt Auburn/Oregon NC.
What pollsters will think: #2. Can you imagine an Auburn/Oregon NC??? They'd probably score 100!
5. TCU/Utah - What we think: I realize my back-and-forth on TCU/Utah is getting old, so this week I'll throw them both at #5 in preparation for their showdown. I still have the feeling that Utah will win, but Baylor's win over Texas and 7-2 record certainly make TCU (45-10 winners over the Bears) look good.
What pollsters will think: TCU #4, Utah #6. It's possible that Oklahoma passes Utah, but I can't fathom why that would happen. The ceiling for the MWC champ is #4 imho, so long as Oregon/Boise don't lose and Alabama/Auburn winner takes the SEC crown.
7. Wisconsin - What we think: Another case of a bye week at the right time. Wisconsin is fresh off of wins over Ohio State and Iowa (both of whom will join them in the top 15 this week), after resting up, they should go unbeaten the rest of the way - let's see if that holds up.
What pollsters will think: #8. Though Stanford and Ohio State looked very impressive, a team is not hurt in its bye week and Wisconsin has two of the best wins in the country right now.
8. Ohio State - What we think: It's not like Minnesota is a good football team, so while the final margin is very impressive, giving up big passing yards in the first half is not. Ohio State looks like one of the top 10 teams, but the defense is banged up, and what's up with the Pryor interception, 1st and goal at the 2?
What pollsters will think: #9. Missouri and Michigan State were considered frauds and after being exposed will drop out of the top 10, letting Ohio State rise into it again. LSU could pass them (though for no real reason), setting up a big game with Alabama this week.
9. Oklahoma - What we think: Much like Ohio State above. I'm not impressed with a big win over Colorado, and with each week that passes, Oklahoma's schedule is looking weaker and weaker. Texas has 4 losses, FSU fell to NC State, Missouri got crushed by Nebraska. Air Force might be Oklahoma's best win so far, and that teams has 4 losses.
What pollsters will think: #7. Oklahoma will continue to rise in the rankings with other team's losses and could be back in it before even playing the Big 12 championship game.
10. Stanford - What we think: I'm having a hard time figuring out the Pac 10, but one thing seems clear. Stanford is better than every team but Oregon, and is a legitimate force that (should they make one) can beat any team in a BCS bowl.
What pollsters will think: #11. (Maybe even #12 if Nebraska jumps them). Stanford has looked very good, but they don't play in the SEC and they aren't playing big names every week (which in pollsters mind is the same thing), so their upward mobility is limited and only based on other teams losses.
Next six: Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan State, LSU, Arizona, Missouri
Not considered: Oklahoma State and the three stooges of the SEC, that are only ranked because of conference affiliation - Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi State
-Jabari
Saturday, October 30, 2010
What we're watching today
Big day in college football with plenty of good teams playing on the road. The one's I'm paying attention to:
Iowa over Michigan State. Michigan State is a great football team, but had serious struggles last week at Northwestern. Iowa is great at home and despite the loss last week to Wisconsin, still has plenty to play for. Their defense is capable of holding Michigan State in check and they should ride their emotions to victory.
21-17
USC over Oregon. I don't want to pick this game. Oregon is too good and USC is too young, but that's exactly why it seems like it will happen. Oregon is dominant at home, but how can they fare in the coliseum? Not well I think, in a shoot out.
42-40
Nebraska over Missouri. I may look like a fool tomorrow for jumping on the upset bandwagon, but it smells like everyone is losing today. Missouri had a phenomenal win last week against Oklahoma, but that was at home. Now they go to Lincoln, where few come out happy. Blackshirts will come after Gabbert. Nebraska going away.
33-17
Iowa over Michigan State. Michigan State is a great football team, but had serious struggles last week at Northwestern. Iowa is great at home and despite the loss last week to Wisconsin, still has plenty to play for. Their defense is capable of holding Michigan State in check and they should ride their emotions to victory.
21-17
USC over Oregon. I don't want to pick this game. Oregon is too good and USC is too young, but that's exactly why it seems like it will happen. Oregon is dominant at home, but how can they fare in the coliseum? Not well I think, in a shoot out.
42-40
Nebraska over Missouri. I may look like a fool tomorrow for jumping on the upset bandwagon, but it smells like everyone is losing today. Missouri had a phenomenal win last week against Oklahoma, but that was at home. Now they go to Lincoln, where few come out happy. Blackshirts will come after Gabbert. Nebraska going away.
33-17
Sunday, October 24, 2010
WGRF Power Poll
Here at WGRF, we were very impressed by Missouri, Auburn and Wisconsin this week. We are also perplexed by Cal. With little time this week, here is the abridged power poll.
1. Boise - what we think: hoping they make the NC this year, this is the year they can win it.
what pollsters will think: #3. Oregon remains at 1, Auburn beat LSU so they must be 2 (also they're in the SEC, so it's just obvious).
2. Oregon - what we think: keep rolling, rolling, rolling. Hope it doesn't come crashing down v USC like ESPN is going to advertise all week.
what pollsters will think: #1. Love the offense. Scoring in a minute or less is exactly what pollsters like to see.
3. Alabama - what we think: so they have a loss. they play Auburn, so I have no problem ranking them ahead of Auburn before that game is played. I have a hard time putting other teams ahead of them, because I think Alabama would win 6+ out of ten on a neutral field against anyone ranked below them.
what pollsters will think: #6. (not positive here, should be close between Bama/Missouri). Since they're in the SEC they will still remain above undefeated teams (which is usually the main criteria in pollsters ranking logic).
4. Auburn - what we think: Great win over LSU. That's enough to make them the second best team in the SEC (imho). Yes, I know they beat USeC who beat Bama....
what pollsters will think: #2. CAM NEWTON = TIM TEBOW!!!
5. Michigan State - what we think: How does that Wisconsin win look now? Pretty good. Great matchup this week at Iowa.
what pollsters will think: #5. Too bad they don't play Ohio State... no chance at #2 without a good deal of losses.
6. Utah - what we think: How does that Iowa State win look now? Pretty mediocre (just wanted to take a shot at Texas here). Getting the feeling that Utah will beat TCU, so I swapped them in the rankings - knowing that teams will play eachother makes this ranking TBD.
what pollsters will think: #8. Jumped by Mizzou because a win over Oklahoma is more impressive than anything Utah has done.
7. Wisconsin - what we think: Huge win over Iowa (on the road no less). Ohio State victory should also resonate and Michigan State loss isn't so bad.
What pollsters will think: #9? (Either LSU or Oklahoma could stay above Wisconsin and Missouri almost certainly jumps them). Plodding Big 10 team can win against Iowa but would get smoked by (insert flashy offense here).
8. Missouri - what we think: you beat Oklahoma, consider us impressed. Beat Nebraska next week and we'll jump all over the bandwagon.
what pollsters will think: #7. A new undefeated Cinderella we can adore!
9. TCU - what we think: well... not much really. It's still a wait and see until the game against Utah, but Baylor is quietly putting up a good record after getting thumped by TCU.
what pollsters will think: #4. Last week it was Oklahoma, this week it's Auburn that is clearly better than TCU for playing in a tougher conference.
10. Ohio State - what we think: close between them and Oklahoma. Oklahoma has a better win (FSU > Miami), but OSU has a better loss (Wisconsin > Missouri) and has looked awfully impressive in every home game.
what pollsters will think: #10? (LSU could stay in front of them and Missouri almost certainly jumps them). Great win over... Purdue? Like that's impressive. Call when you beat Iowa (unless they lose to MSU too).
Next five: Oklahoma, Stanford, Nebraska, Iowa, LSU
Not considered: Arizona, Florida State
1. Boise - what we think: hoping they make the NC this year, this is the year they can win it.
what pollsters will think: #3. Oregon remains at 1, Auburn beat LSU so they must be 2 (also they're in the SEC, so it's just obvious).
2. Oregon - what we think: keep rolling, rolling, rolling. Hope it doesn't come crashing down v USC like ESPN is going to advertise all week.
what pollsters will think: #1. Love the offense. Scoring in a minute or less is exactly what pollsters like to see.
3. Alabama - what we think: so they have a loss. they play Auburn, so I have no problem ranking them ahead of Auburn before that game is played. I have a hard time putting other teams ahead of them, because I think Alabama would win 6+ out of ten on a neutral field against anyone ranked below them.
what pollsters will think: #6. (not positive here, should be close between Bama/Missouri). Since they're in the SEC they will still remain above undefeated teams (which is usually the main criteria in pollsters ranking logic).
4. Auburn - what we think: Great win over LSU. That's enough to make them the second best team in the SEC (imho). Yes, I know they beat USeC who beat Bama....
what pollsters will think: #2. CAM NEWTON = TIM TEBOW!!!
5. Michigan State - what we think: How does that Wisconsin win look now? Pretty good. Great matchup this week at Iowa.
what pollsters will think: #5. Too bad they don't play Ohio State... no chance at #2 without a good deal of losses.
6. Utah - what we think: How does that Iowa State win look now? Pretty mediocre (just wanted to take a shot at Texas here). Getting the feeling that Utah will beat TCU, so I swapped them in the rankings - knowing that teams will play eachother makes this ranking TBD.
what pollsters will think: #8. Jumped by Mizzou because a win over Oklahoma is more impressive than anything Utah has done.
7. Wisconsin - what we think: Huge win over Iowa (on the road no less). Ohio State victory should also resonate and Michigan State loss isn't so bad.
What pollsters will think: #9? (Either LSU or Oklahoma could stay above Wisconsin and Missouri almost certainly jumps them). Plodding Big 10 team can win against Iowa but would get smoked by (insert flashy offense here).
8. Missouri - what we think: you beat Oklahoma, consider us impressed. Beat Nebraska next week and we'll jump all over the bandwagon.
what pollsters will think: #7. A new undefeated Cinderella we can adore!
9. TCU - what we think: well... not much really. It's still a wait and see until the game against Utah, but Baylor is quietly putting up a good record after getting thumped by TCU.
what pollsters will think: #4. Last week it was Oklahoma, this week it's Auburn that is clearly better than TCU for playing in a tougher conference.
10. Ohio State - what we think: close between them and Oklahoma. Oklahoma has a better win (FSU > Miami), but OSU has a better loss (Wisconsin > Missouri) and has looked awfully impressive in every home game.
what pollsters will think: #10? (LSU could stay in front of them and Missouri almost certainly jumps them). Great win over... Purdue? Like that's impressive. Call when you beat Iowa (unless they lose to MSU too).
Next five: Oklahoma, Stanford, Nebraska, Iowa, LSU
Not considered: Arizona, Florida State
Sunday, October 17, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll and a top rank jinx?
I'm not going to suggest that 2010 = 2007 or that we should prepare for a season of #1 upsets, but in the last two weeks, the two strongest looking teams from the pre-season went on the road and dropped in eerily similar fashions.
Both spotted their opponents a big first half lead. Both surged back and looked spectacular in doing so. Both gave up further scores to lose by double digits. Will Oregon fall next week? I doubt it, but it's possible.
My rankings last week featured a #1 and #2 that both took losses (Ohio State and Nebraska). In my case, I don't feel this invalidates the ranking - my goal is not to predict which teams will win out, but to order them based on games played up to that point. Each week is a new data-point, and each week the rankings get closer to being correct.
1. Boise State. What WGRF thinks: Boise is the best team in the country. Yes, Oregon State just lost and that hurts a bit. Yes, Nevada just lost, so there will be no marquee match-up late in the season. Should have ranked them number one a few weeks ago. What Pollsters will think: #2 (some will boost Boise to #1, I'd imagine especially in the AP poll) Team ahead of them loses, I will bump them up. Yes, they're at #2, but Oklahoma is on the rise and I can always put them or the winner of Auburn/LSU above Boise later in the season, citing schedule strength.
2. Oklahoma. What WGRF thinks: Should we jump all over this bandwagon based off of results against Iowa State? (who Utah hung 60+ on last week). Why not. I still think Landry Jones is going to foul up a game for the Sooners at some point, but for now the team is rolling. Two match-ups with undefeateds left (Mizzou this week and Ok State later). What Pollsters will think: #4. (I imagine it could be very close between TCU/Oklahoma) Strong Big 12 team, undefeated, big name - will continue to climb the rankings if they keep winning, even if teams ahead don't lose.
3. Oregon. What WGRF thinks: Love the offense, hate the defense. Plus, they play in the toughest conference in the nation. Played their only sure victory this past week (Bye). What Pollsters will think: #1. If you're #2 and #1 loses, I will bump you to #1. First time Oregon has ever been there. We won't vote them an overwhelming #1 because Oklahoma has been just as impressive and has a bigger name.
4. Alabama. What WGRF thinks: Back to power running, back to defense. I wanted to jump on the writing this team off bandwagon last week, but an Ohio State loss is an open door for Bama to get back in it. I'm betting on spirited football from this team down the stretch. But is the schedule too brutal? What Pollsters will think: #6. Not above Auburn, but above LSU. Doesn't matter what order with those three teams as they all will play.
5. Auburn. What WGRF thinks: Not exactly impressed with the video game performance against Arkansas - just awful defense all around. But like the resolve and how once they turned it on, they didn't stop scoring - 28 points in the 4th, wow. What Pollsters will think: #5. The world is right again with a top 5 SEC team. Cam Newton is the new Heisman front runner.
6. Michigan State. What WGRF thinks: Although I am fully prepared for them to lose a trap game this coming weekend at Northwestern, I reward this team for Wisconsin over Ohio State like I rewarded Auburn for South Carolina over Alabama. Get past Northwestern and there is still Iowa and a potentially dangerous Purdue. What Pollsters will think: #8. Jumping Utah and sliding up past Ohio State (who should fall further than Alabama did, considering voter perceptions of each team at the time of the loss).
7. TCU. What WGRF thinks: A little slow to start, but got to roaring. Still excited for the match-up with Utah. Love Dalton's poise. What Pollsters will think: #3 (reluctantly) Who did they play again? I am fully prepared to drop them below Oklahoma, Auburn/LSU winner next week.
8. Stanford. What WGRF thinks: The loss to Oregon featured an atrocious second half defense and the win against USC wasn't inspiring, but this is a tremendous football team. I would not be surprised if they close out with only one more loss (games at Washington and home v Oregon State and Arizona will be the tough ones) or even win out from here. What Pollsters will think: #12. Move up after the bye week, but either behind Nebraska or jumped by Wisconsin.
9. Wisconsin. What WGRF thinks: The impressive thing is not the win, but how the game was won. If they game had finished 21-18 with Wisconsin clinging to that lead they put up in the first half, I would not be impressed. Rather, Wisconsin pushed Ohio State around late in the 4th quarter to add 10 points and finish it off. That O-Line is something to behold. What Pollsters will think: #11. Florida State struggles and Arizona loss make this jump easier. Still behind Ohio State, which doesn't make much sense.
10. LSU. What WGRF thinks: Wins over UNC and WVU in the nonconference. Still the bulk of an SEC West schedule to go. This team will finish with 2-3 losses (unless Miles really did sell his soul), but for now are worthy of #10. What Pollsters will think: #7. Undefeated SEC team? Of course they deserve a top 10 ranking - doesn't matter that they have yet to play the meat of their schedule.
Next five: Utah, Iowa, Ohio State, Nebraska, Missouri
Not considered: Florida State, Arizona
Saturday, October 16, 2010
What We're Watching Today
Michigan State over Illinois
I've heard some talk recently about Illinois having a chance to pull the upset here, but I just don't see it. Neither Ohio State nor Penn State could run the ball that well on the Illini, but neither of those teams have been running so well this season at all. Michigan State is very physical and should take it right to the Illini.
40-21
Arkansas over Auburn
Auburn has had a special season thus far, but it's going to end sometime. This team is not a championship contender and Arkansas' offense should show why. Cam Newton should keep it close, but won't be able to pull it out.
24-20
Ohio State over Wisconsin
This should be a close game. It always is when Ohio State plays in Madison (or anywhere on the road, it seems). Wisconsin's O-line may just push the buckeyes defense around. If Pryor turns the ball over, I think Wisconsin will win this game. Rather, I think he'll play safe and have an unspectacular day. Probably to the tune of 150 passing yards and 50 rushing.
Ohio State 27-21
Other things to look for:
Will Missouri validate their ranking today? Or fall against Texas A&M. I'd pick the Aggies for the upset here.
Denard Robinson to not carry his team against the best defense they've faced all year. I'm not sure if they'll gain 300 yards as a team.
Kentucky to scare South Carolina.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
New Rankings and how the west will be won.
First let me say, I was wrong about Miami. Their offense played about exactly as I expected - a few missed opportunities, but overall par for the course. But that defense is awful. Randy Shannon's team has made progress, but isn't ready to challenge the big boys yet.
Second, kudos to South Carolina, even if I'm going to get awfully tired of hearing about them over the next week (more about this below).
Now for our new WGRF rankings, which may or may not resemble the new AP rankings. I imagine the top 4-5 will be similar and then there will be big differences below that.
1. Ohio State.
What WGRF thinks: This is the logical move up, from #2 to #1. Other things have also affected their standing. First, Miami was exposed by Florida State as not much of a quality opponent. Second, Illinois demonstrated that they can be competent more than just one "trap" game (as I heard Ohio State fans calling it). A net even, in my opinion. This team looks very, very good, especially on Defense. Pryor throwing for 300+ and not running once (seriously, all of his rushes were sacks in this game) was an impressive display of patience on his end. I'm not convinced that he is 100% healthy, but I am convinced that he can play lights-out despite the injury.
What Pollsters will think: #1. They were number two last week so I bump them up since they didn't lose. Not impressed by the rout of Indiana, routs are expected at this point.
2. Nebraska
What WGRF thinks: That win over Kansas State should not be taken lightly. Yes, K-State is not an elite opponent. But that was a good football team, with good offensive execution, that already owned a victory over UCLA - and Nebraska smoked them. Martinez is a verifiable stud and a legitimate Heisman candidate (to remember for the future, he won't be winning this season with his numbers as of now). Nebraska should have no problem getting revved up for their next game, which will be Texas. Missouri, however, is looking like the toughest opponent on their schedule.
What Pollsters will think: #5. Kansas State is not Stanford, so Oregon is still better based on that win.
3. Oregon
What WGRF thinks: I was ready to bump up Oregon to #1, but I am less than impressed with them falling behind again in the first half (this time to the infamously terrible Wazzu team) and Stanford/USC didn't leave me feeling all that impressed with Pac 10 defenses. One of these days Oregon is not going to be able to turn it on in the second half, and they're going to lose. The Stanford game was truly impressive, but I'm tired of hearing the "outscored their opponents in the second half by x" statistic. See Ohio State v Indiana, Florida State v Miami or Nebraska v KSU. Take the lead early, build it by halftime, pull away in the second half. That's the model for a good game of football against an overmatched opponent.
What Pollsters will think: #2. Oregon is so exciting, should I vote them #1? They're much more fun to watch than Big 10 football. If only they were in the SEC.
4. Boise St
What WGRF thinks: Since Boise beat them twice (33-30 and then the hangover v James Madison), Virginia Tech has been solid. Oregon State just notched a quality win. U of Nevada at Reno continues to roll. Boise's schedule looks pretty good, comparable to a Nebraska schedule. And Boise looks very good. I could see this team winning an NC - if they get the chance.
What Pollsters will think: #3. Another win over a terrible opponent? I was too busy watching quality football to pay attention, so I'll keep Boise in stasis - not low enough to show that I'm biased, but not high enough to be dangerous.
5. TCU
What WGRF thinks: You can't deny this team forever. This is a very good football team and Andy Dalton is running a smooth offense that should go undefeated until a huge tilt with Utah.
What Pollsters will think: #4 Same as Boise. I'm not watching this team week to week. I will drop them below Nebraska/Oklahoma by seasons end.
6. Auburn
What WGRF thinks: This team will probably lose a game to Arkansas or Alabama (or LSU, but I sure hope not). This ranking is entirely based on South Carolina's win over Alabama. I will have no problem dropping Auburn behind other teams in subsequent weeks, even if they keep winning.
What Pollsters will think: #7. I don't want to elevate Auburn over Alabama, but I can't keep a 1 loss SEC team over two undefeated SEC teams (LSU/Auburn).
7. Utah
What WGRF thinks: Rolling through their schedule. Waiting to see them play TCU. Starting to think the Utes will win that game and be the team that makes a BCS bowl.
What Pollsters will think: #10. LSU, Alabama and the like all play a tougher schedule and deserve to be above Utah, even if Utah is probably better (ok, Pollsters may not say the second part).
8. Alabama
What WGRF thinks: Put this team against any other in the NC and I would be on Alabama to not only win, but cover by more than a touchdown. No team is more talented. Too bad talent is only half of the element in college football. Got to keep those emotions in check, I honestly thought Saban would do a better job than that. Way too early to write this team off, though. Still chances to gain two quality wins over LSU/Auburn and have the potential for a rematch with South Carolina (though it will probably by Florida) in the SEC championship game.
What Pollsters will think: #9. Top 1 loss team. Keep them above Utah (cause I haven't seen them play) and Michigan State (cause they play in the Big 10).
9. Iowa
What WGRF thinks: This team should not have lost that game to Arizona. But they did, thus why they sit at #9 and not in the top 5 where they belong. They just might be the ones to beat Ohio State, if Wisconsin can't do it this weekend.
What Pollsters will think: #14. Not SEC, not undefeated, Arizona just lost. No reason to move them up except that Florida and Miami just lost. Michigan State will probably jump them. Stanford, Florida State and South Carolina all could too.
10. Oklahoma
What WGRF thinks: I like this football team. I just can't ignore the games against Utah St and Cincinnati. I think this team will win the South, but may drop to Oklahoma State or Texas A&M and I don't think they'll beat Nebraska.
What Pollsters will think: #6. Nebraska is better, but Oklahoma beat Texas: remember?
Other teams considered: Michigan State, Arkansas, Nevada, LSU (although I don't want to). The first 3 are good teams, there just isn't enough room. I can't ignore LSU's wins over Florida/WVU.
Not considering: South Carolina, Florida State. One week does not, a season, make.
What Pollsters are thinking about South Carolina and why you may see them crack a few top 10s:
Joe: Hey Bob, did you catch that Boise game?
Bob: No, Joe, I was watching Notre Dame v Pittsburgh. Great game, Notre Dame is really figuring it out - and not just cause they were playing Pittsburgh.
Joe: In fairness, Pittsburgh is awful. Wait, did you see that South Carolina beat Alabama?
Bob: No. Wow, that's a great win. Wait, didn't they beat Georgia??
Joe: Yea, but they lost to Auburn.
Bob: So what! This team now has beaten Georgia and Alabama! Who else has two quality wins like that?
Joe: Well, first, Georgia isn't good, and second, several teams do: like Boise and -
Bob: OH MY WORD, DID YOU SEE WHO COACHES THIS TEAM??
Joe: Steve Spurrier, he's been there for years and has really underachie-
Bob: THE OL' BALL COACH, THIS TEAM MUST BE UNBEATABLE!!
Second, kudos to South Carolina, even if I'm going to get awfully tired of hearing about them over the next week (more about this below).
Now for our new WGRF rankings, which may or may not resemble the new AP rankings. I imagine the top 4-5 will be similar and then there will be big differences below that.
1. Ohio State.
What WGRF thinks: This is the logical move up, from #2 to #1. Other things have also affected their standing. First, Miami was exposed by Florida State as not much of a quality opponent. Second, Illinois demonstrated that they can be competent more than just one "trap" game (as I heard Ohio State fans calling it). A net even, in my opinion. This team looks very, very good, especially on Defense. Pryor throwing for 300+ and not running once (seriously, all of his rushes were sacks in this game) was an impressive display of patience on his end. I'm not convinced that he is 100% healthy, but I am convinced that he can play lights-out despite the injury.
What Pollsters will think: #1. They were number two last week so I bump them up since they didn't lose. Not impressed by the rout of Indiana, routs are expected at this point.
2. Nebraska
What WGRF thinks: That win over Kansas State should not be taken lightly. Yes, K-State is not an elite opponent. But that was a good football team, with good offensive execution, that already owned a victory over UCLA - and Nebraska smoked them. Martinez is a verifiable stud and a legitimate Heisman candidate (to remember for the future, he won't be winning this season with his numbers as of now). Nebraska should have no problem getting revved up for their next game, which will be Texas. Missouri, however, is looking like the toughest opponent on their schedule.
What Pollsters will think: #5. Kansas State is not Stanford, so Oregon is still better based on that win.
3. Oregon
What WGRF thinks: I was ready to bump up Oregon to #1, but I am less than impressed with them falling behind again in the first half (this time to the infamously terrible Wazzu team) and Stanford/USC didn't leave me feeling all that impressed with Pac 10 defenses. One of these days Oregon is not going to be able to turn it on in the second half, and they're going to lose. The Stanford game was truly impressive, but I'm tired of hearing the "outscored their opponents in the second half by x" statistic. See Ohio State v Indiana, Florida State v Miami or Nebraska v KSU. Take the lead early, build it by halftime, pull away in the second half. That's the model for a good game of football against an overmatched opponent.
What Pollsters will think: #2. Oregon is so exciting, should I vote them #1? They're much more fun to watch than Big 10 football. If only they were in the SEC.
4. Boise St
What WGRF thinks: Since Boise beat them twice (33-30 and then the hangover v James Madison), Virginia Tech has been solid. Oregon State just notched a quality win. U of Nevada at Reno continues to roll. Boise's schedule looks pretty good, comparable to a Nebraska schedule. And Boise looks very good. I could see this team winning an NC - if they get the chance.
What Pollsters will think: #3. Another win over a terrible opponent? I was too busy watching quality football to pay attention, so I'll keep Boise in stasis - not low enough to show that I'm biased, but not high enough to be dangerous.
5. TCU
What WGRF thinks: You can't deny this team forever. This is a very good football team and Andy Dalton is running a smooth offense that should go undefeated until a huge tilt with Utah.
What Pollsters will think: #4 Same as Boise. I'm not watching this team week to week. I will drop them below Nebraska/Oklahoma by seasons end.
6. Auburn
What WGRF thinks: This team will probably lose a game to Arkansas or Alabama (or LSU, but I sure hope not). This ranking is entirely based on South Carolina's win over Alabama. I will have no problem dropping Auburn behind other teams in subsequent weeks, even if they keep winning.
What Pollsters will think: #7. I don't want to elevate Auburn over Alabama, but I can't keep a 1 loss SEC team over two undefeated SEC teams (LSU/Auburn).
7. Utah
What WGRF thinks: Rolling through their schedule. Waiting to see them play TCU. Starting to think the Utes will win that game and be the team that makes a BCS bowl.
What Pollsters will think: #10. LSU, Alabama and the like all play a tougher schedule and deserve to be above Utah, even if Utah is probably better (ok, Pollsters may not say the second part).
8. Alabama
What WGRF thinks: Put this team against any other in the NC and I would be on Alabama to not only win, but cover by more than a touchdown. No team is more talented. Too bad talent is only half of the element in college football. Got to keep those emotions in check, I honestly thought Saban would do a better job than that. Way too early to write this team off, though. Still chances to gain two quality wins over LSU/Auburn and have the potential for a rematch with South Carolina (though it will probably by Florida) in the SEC championship game.
What Pollsters will think: #9. Top 1 loss team. Keep them above Utah (cause I haven't seen them play) and Michigan State (cause they play in the Big 10).
9. Iowa
What WGRF thinks: This team should not have lost that game to Arizona. But they did, thus why they sit at #9 and not in the top 5 where they belong. They just might be the ones to beat Ohio State, if Wisconsin can't do it this weekend.
What Pollsters will think: #14. Not SEC, not undefeated, Arizona just lost. No reason to move them up except that Florida and Miami just lost. Michigan State will probably jump them. Stanford, Florida State and South Carolina all could too.
10. Oklahoma
What WGRF thinks: I like this football team. I just can't ignore the games against Utah St and Cincinnati. I think this team will win the South, but may drop to Oklahoma State or Texas A&M and I don't think they'll beat Nebraska.
What Pollsters will think: #6. Nebraska is better, but Oklahoma beat Texas: remember?
Other teams considered: Michigan State, Arkansas, Nevada, LSU (although I don't want to). The first 3 are good teams, there just isn't enough room. I can't ignore LSU's wins over Florida/WVU.
Not considering: South Carolina, Florida State. One week does not, a season, make.
What Pollsters are thinking about South Carolina and why you may see them crack a few top 10s:
Joe: Hey Bob, did you catch that Boise game?
Bob: No, Joe, I was watching Notre Dame v Pittsburgh. Great game, Notre Dame is really figuring it out - and not just cause they were playing Pittsburgh.
Joe: In fairness, Pittsburgh is awful. Wait, did you see that South Carolina beat Alabama?
Bob: No. Wow, that's a great win. Wait, didn't they beat Georgia??
Joe: Yea, but they lost to Auburn.
Bob: So what! This team now has beaten Georgia and Alabama! Who else has two quality wins like that?
Joe: Well, first, Georgia isn't good, and second, several teams do: like Boise and -
Bob: OH MY WORD, DID YOU SEE WHO COACHES THIS TEAM??
Joe: Steve Spurrier, he's been there for years and has really underachie-
Bob: THE OL' BALL COACH, THIS TEAM MUST BE UNBEATABLE!!
Saturday, October 9, 2010
What we're watching today
Here at WGRF, we've been far too busy. And in the case of Raffy, I don't even know where he has gone. But today we get to catch a few games. Here's what we will be watching:
Michigan State over Michigan
I like DR, I really do. He's fast, he has great vision and is surprisingly efficient. But he's also reckless. I have this gut feeling that one of these hits he takes is going to knock him out of the game. Even if he stays in, it will have to take a toll on him. Very little defense in this game though.
MSU 42 - Mich 34
Miami over Florida State
This game is the ACC title game. Well except for Virginia Tech still hanging around there... It's really not as important of a game as it's being made out to be. Neither of these teams is as good as advertised, but I have much more faith in Miami's defense than FSU's. Jacory Harris only 2 picks and:
Miami 28 - FSU 13
Other things to look for:
Alabama letdown v South Carolina (they will win, but it won't be as perfect as last week).
Les Miles botches the Florida game and Karma is even.
Oregon State upsetting Arizona. Boise and TCU collectively rejoicing.
Michigan State over Michigan
I like DR, I really do. He's fast, he has great vision and is surprisingly efficient. But he's also reckless. I have this gut feeling that one of these hits he takes is going to knock him out of the game. Even if he stays in, it will have to take a toll on him. Very little defense in this game though.
MSU 42 - Mich 34
Miami over Florida State
This game is the ACC title game. Well except for Virginia Tech still hanging around there... It's really not as important of a game as it's being made out to be. Neither of these teams is as good as advertised, but I have much more faith in Miami's defense than FSU's. Jacory Harris only 2 picks and:
Miami 28 - FSU 13
Other things to look for:
Alabama letdown v South Carolina (they will win, but it won't be as perfect as last week).
Les Miles botches the Florida game and Karma is even.
Oregon State upsetting Arizona. Boise and TCU collectively rejoicing.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll 2010 vol 3
1. Alabama
Was I wrong about this team being unbeatable? Perhaps I was. That's good news for Boise potentially. But I don't who on their schedule is going to beat them, yet. I'm not as impressed with LSU or Auburn as others seem to be. I'm
2. Ohio State
Another warm up week for Ohio State with two more on the way. Illinois and Indiana to start conference play means another 6-0 start.
3. Oregon
Oregon is no longer the league leader in total defense. Not after giving up 597 yards to Arizona State. And yet, after forcing 7 turnovers, they still won by double digits.
4. Boise State
The Broncos' season is now over, according to the talking heads. But this team needs to stay focused as Fresno St, Nevada and Utah St are all capable of knocking them off.
5. TCU
All signs point to a monster match-up of undefeated top 10 teams when TCU plays Utah.
6. Nebraska
What a lackluster victory against South Dakota St. Seems like an anomaly with the way this team has played thus far, they should start rolling through Big 12 North opponents.
7. Oklahoma
A scare against a mediocre Cincinnati squad is not a good sign for Sooner fans; however, Texas may not prove to be as tough an out as we previously thought so I don't know what team can beat OU (not until the Big 12 championship game v Nebraska, that is).
8. Florida
This team is "rolling" now. They played Kentucky, sure, and we're only a week removed from struggles against Tennessee, but what a win to set up a match-up with Alabama right? How convenient that the talking heads warm up to UF this week... I, on the other hand, am not swayed by scores against the Wildcats and wonder if Florida can stand on the same field as Alabama. That's what I hope to find out this weekend.
9. Wisconsin
Michigan State is a good football team. Wisconsin is more talented, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lose this weekend. That said, Oct 16 is the date to circle: that's when Ohio State goes to Madison.
10. Auburn
That was at least a good win against South Carolina (it's been well documented how I think that team is consistently overrated... ever since Spurrier arrived), but couple that with another good win over Clemson, and this Auburn squad is a pleasant surprise.
considered: Utah, Stanford, LSU
would never consider: Michigan, Arizona
Was I wrong about this team being unbeatable? Perhaps I was. That's good news for Boise potentially. But I don't who on their schedule is going to beat them, yet. I'm not as impressed with LSU or Auburn as others seem to be. I'm
2. Ohio State
Another warm up week for Ohio State with two more on the way. Illinois and Indiana to start conference play means another 6-0 start.
3. Oregon
Oregon is no longer the league leader in total defense. Not after giving up 597 yards to Arizona State. And yet, after forcing 7 turnovers, they still won by double digits.
4. Boise State
The Broncos' season is now over, according to the talking heads. But this team needs to stay focused as Fresno St, Nevada and Utah St are all capable of knocking them off.
5. TCU
All signs point to a monster match-up of undefeated top 10 teams when TCU plays Utah.
6. Nebraska
What a lackluster victory against South Dakota St. Seems like an anomaly with the way this team has played thus far, they should start rolling through Big 12 North opponents.
7. Oklahoma
A scare against a mediocre Cincinnati squad is not a good sign for Sooner fans; however, Texas may not prove to be as tough an out as we previously thought so I don't know what team can beat OU (not until the Big 12 championship game v Nebraska, that is).
8. Florida
This team is "rolling" now. They played Kentucky, sure, and we're only a week removed from struggles against Tennessee, but what a win to set up a match-up with Alabama right? How convenient that the talking heads warm up to UF this week... I, on the other hand, am not swayed by scores against the Wildcats and wonder if Florida can stand on the same field as Alabama. That's what I hope to find out this weekend.
9. Wisconsin
Michigan State is a good football team. Wisconsin is more talented, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lose this weekend. That said, Oct 16 is the date to circle: that's when Ohio State goes to Madison.
10. Auburn
That was at least a good win against South Carolina (it's been well documented how I think that team is consistently overrated... ever since Spurrier arrived), but couple that with another good win over Clemson, and this Auburn squad is a pleasant surprise.
considered: Utah, Stanford, LSU
would never consider: Michigan, Arizona
Sunday, September 26, 2010
Chutes and Ladders
In an interesting development this college football season, every team is playing a game of Jekyll and Hyde. The unbeatable for the first few weeks: Alabama, Oregon, Texas, Nebraska - looked pedestrian this past weekend, and in the case of the Longhorns, who looked downright awful against UCLA, the season is now half over. Expectations in Austin are #1 Big 12 Championship and #2 National Championship. The latter of these is out the window, the former probably will not be achieved either. It shouldn't be expected of a team that lost their heart and soul, but fans in Austin only have the appetite for winning it all - success breeds unrealistic expectations.
Teams that looked terrible in the first few weeks now seem to be better than expected: UCLA, Michigan, Virginia Tech. All won this weekend going away - for UCLA that was a shocker, for Michigan and Va Tech, I was surprised at least considering that in previous weeks they'd had no idea how to put it all together. Perhaps it was just the perfect storm of playing over matched squads and getting a few breaks.
Teams that shouldn't be talked about anymore as quality opponents:
Notre Dame and Georgia. Both are now 1-3 with their lone wins over equally horrendous teams. Michigan State, Michigan and South Carolina rode the waves of these teams in the rankings and should instantly be reconsidered. I don't believe any should be ranked above 20 in anybody's rankings, though I'm prepared for all of them to be, considering a weak field (though the rankings have ignored Nevada to this point...) and the fact that voters tend to change their mind very slowly after they've pushed a team up the rankings early in the year. Without a bad loss, they tend to keep rising.
Teams that should now be considered quality wins:
UCLA. It may seem like I'm leaping all over this bandwagon, and in a sense I am. But I'm not doing so under the impression that UCLA will challenge for a Pac 10 title or rise in the polls. Rather, I'm doing so because UCLA has probably played the toughest schedule in the country thusfar and has emerged 2-2 with two quality wins. Stanford is really good, I think people are starting to realize that now, so while a 35-0 blanking is a bad loss, when it is to Stanford - it isn't quite as bad.
Teams that are still undefeated (and you didn't realize it):
NC State, Indiana, Utah, Kansas State, Missouri
the only ones of these that deserve to sniff the rankings at this point are Utah (in) and Kansas State/NC State (maybe just on the outside looking in).
Stop talking about:
South Carolina, Penn State
Call me when one of these teams beats somebody.
Start talking about:
Nevada, Wisconsin
One is the best team you're not currently following and the other is the quietest top 15 team as they sleepwalked through their non-conference slate and the best chance at Ohio State not going undefeated.
What I'm watching today:
Dallas at Houston. The battle for Texas. On the day after the Longhorns let down the whole state, 0-2 Dallas looks to rebound against stunningly perfect 2-0 Houston. Dallas is better than an 0-3 start, but here I am riding the Texan bandwagon.
Houston 30-27
Philadelphia at Jacksonville. Not the best game in this time slot, but I'm just excited to be watching Michael Vick again, this time as a passer. Ok, just kidding. I'm hoping he takes off running every play. Here's assuming he doesn't need to against a porous Jags d.
Philly 26-9
New York (Jets) at Miami. I'm not riding the Sanchez train, I'm not betting on the Jets. I don't want to support Miami either, but I'd love to see Jets fans play the Sanchez seesaw again (week 1, what a bum, week 2, what a stud, week 3, ?).
Miami 17-16
Boardwalk Empire - Buscemi and Scorcese, what could be better? First episode was a bit of a dull one, but I'm hopeful that's because it was just to set up the characters. Michael Pitt's character may end up being the most interesting.
- Jabari
Teams that looked terrible in the first few weeks now seem to be better than expected: UCLA, Michigan, Virginia Tech. All won this weekend going away - for UCLA that was a shocker, for Michigan and Va Tech, I was surprised at least considering that in previous weeks they'd had no idea how to put it all together. Perhaps it was just the perfect storm of playing over matched squads and getting a few breaks.
Teams that shouldn't be talked about anymore as quality opponents:
Notre Dame and Georgia. Both are now 1-3 with their lone wins over equally horrendous teams. Michigan State, Michigan and South Carolina rode the waves of these teams in the rankings and should instantly be reconsidered. I don't believe any should be ranked above 20 in anybody's rankings, though I'm prepared for all of them to be, considering a weak field (though the rankings have ignored Nevada to this point...) and the fact that voters tend to change their mind very slowly after they've pushed a team up the rankings early in the year. Without a bad loss, they tend to keep rising.
Teams that should now be considered quality wins:
UCLA. It may seem like I'm leaping all over this bandwagon, and in a sense I am. But I'm not doing so under the impression that UCLA will challenge for a Pac 10 title or rise in the polls. Rather, I'm doing so because UCLA has probably played the toughest schedule in the country thusfar and has emerged 2-2 with two quality wins. Stanford is really good, I think people are starting to realize that now, so while a 35-0 blanking is a bad loss, when it is to Stanford - it isn't quite as bad.
Teams that are still undefeated (and you didn't realize it):
NC State, Indiana, Utah, Kansas State, Missouri
the only ones of these that deserve to sniff the rankings at this point are Utah (in) and Kansas State/NC State (maybe just on the outside looking in).
Stop talking about:
South Carolina, Penn State
Call me when one of these teams beats somebody.
Start talking about:
Nevada, Wisconsin
One is the best team you're not currently following and the other is the quietest top 15 team as they sleepwalked through their non-conference slate and the best chance at Ohio State not going undefeated.
What I'm watching today:
Dallas at Houston. The battle for Texas. On the day after the Longhorns let down the whole state, 0-2 Dallas looks to rebound against stunningly perfect 2-0 Houston. Dallas is better than an 0-3 start, but here I am riding the Texan bandwagon.
Houston 30-27
Philadelphia at Jacksonville. Not the best game in this time slot, but I'm just excited to be watching Michael Vick again, this time as a passer. Ok, just kidding. I'm hoping he takes off running every play. Here's assuming he doesn't need to against a porous Jags d.
Philly 26-9
New York (Jets) at Miami. I'm not riding the Sanchez train, I'm not betting on the Jets. I don't want to support Miami either, but I'd love to see Jets fans play the Sanchez seesaw again (week 1, what a bum, week 2, what a stud, week 3, ?).
Miami 17-16
Boardwalk Empire - Buscemi and Scorcese, what could be better? First episode was a bit of a dull one, but I'm hopeful that's because it was just to set up the characters. Michael Pitt's character may end up being the most interesting.
- Jabari
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
WGRF College Football Power Poll 2010 vol 2
I'm glad that I did not rank Iowa or TCU before, as they both made clear to me how good they are - Iowa with a loss, TCU with a very solid win.
1. Alabama
This will get old, this team is not going to be beaten by anyone but themselves. Richardson played great in Ingram's absence. Ingram's return was one of the best I've ever seen. An average of 15+ per carry coming back from injury, are you kidding me?
2. Ohio State
This team is very polished in all aspects of the game other than kick coverage. I believe the Arizona-Iowa game demonstrated to us how dangerous of a problem this can be, but so far it hasn't bitten the Buckeyes.
3. Boise State
I have to give credit here, I thought Boise would struggle a bit in Laramie, but this team is extremely focused. They believe they deserve a shot at the big boys for a NC. I don't know if I agree, but I'm still impressed with how they're playing.
4. TCU
Baylor is not a good football team. And yet, TCU made them look like chumps, which is not just par for the course when playing Baylor. TCU put them away easily. TCU's schedule is easy, sure, but they're going to try and make sure nobody can hang with them.
5. Oklahoma
It's not shameful to have a problem with Air Force - that's a good football team. Plus, OU beat up Air Force early and then coasted to a victory. The score looked closer than the game.
6. Oregon
No Blunt, No Masoli, no problem. This team is rolling offensively, which is a surprise to me at least, considering the talent they had to replace.
7. Nebraska
This defense is not better than last year, they just haven't played anybody yet, but I'm believing in the talent - and focus - in dominating their opponents thusfar.
8. Texas
It has not been the best start of the post-McCoy era (as I'm going to call it until Gilbert steps up and claims it as his era), but they're winning solidly even if not impressing. The OU game will be the barometer, as always.
9. Auburn or SEC Team*
Auburn has the win over Clemson - that's enough for me to put them here, knowing that if they don't back it up in conference play they'll drop fast.
10. SEC team*
*The polls currently have Arkansas, South Carolina, Florida and LSU somewhere in the top 16. All of those teams have good talent, but none have played a quality opponent (Georgia doesn't count). Once they get into conference play it will become more clear which are good and which were overrated (as some, like South Carolina, always are)
Teams I'm paying attention to:
Arizona - that win over Iowa was either lucky or good, we'll find out
Stanford - the domination of UCLA looks fairly solid now
Wisconsin - coasting through non-conference almost cost them one
Michigan - this team is exciting, even if not that great
Utah - pretty impressive so far, I wonder if they'll have something to say about TCU
1. Alabama
This will get old, this team is not going to be beaten by anyone but themselves. Richardson played great in Ingram's absence. Ingram's return was one of the best I've ever seen. An average of 15+ per carry coming back from injury, are you kidding me?
2. Ohio State
This team is very polished in all aspects of the game other than kick coverage. I believe the Arizona-Iowa game demonstrated to us how dangerous of a problem this can be, but so far it hasn't bitten the Buckeyes.
3. Boise State
I have to give credit here, I thought Boise would struggle a bit in Laramie, but this team is extremely focused. They believe they deserve a shot at the big boys for a NC. I don't know if I agree, but I'm still impressed with how they're playing.
4. TCU
Baylor is not a good football team. And yet, TCU made them look like chumps, which is not just par for the course when playing Baylor. TCU put them away easily. TCU's schedule is easy, sure, but they're going to try and make sure nobody can hang with them.
5. Oklahoma
It's not shameful to have a problem with Air Force - that's a good football team. Plus, OU beat up Air Force early and then coasted to a victory. The score looked closer than the game.
6. Oregon
No Blunt, No Masoli, no problem. This team is rolling offensively, which is a surprise to me at least, considering the talent they had to replace.
7. Nebraska
This defense is not better than last year, they just haven't played anybody yet, but I'm believing in the talent - and focus - in dominating their opponents thusfar.
8. Texas
It has not been the best start of the post-McCoy era (as I'm going to call it until Gilbert steps up and claims it as his era), but they're winning solidly even if not impressing. The OU game will be the barometer, as always.
9. Auburn or SEC Team*
Auburn has the win over Clemson - that's enough for me to put them here, knowing that if they don't back it up in conference play they'll drop fast.
10. SEC team*
*The polls currently have Arkansas, South Carolina, Florida and LSU somewhere in the top 16. All of those teams have good talent, but none have played a quality opponent (Georgia doesn't count). Once they get into conference play it will become more clear which are good and which were overrated (as some, like South Carolina, always are)
Teams I'm paying attention to:
Arizona - that win over Iowa was either lucky or good, we'll find out
Stanford - the domination of UCLA looks fairly solid now
Wisconsin - coasting through non-conference almost cost them one
Michigan - this team is exciting, even if not that great
Utah - pretty impressive so far, I wonder if they'll have something to say about TCU
Monday, September 20, 2010
Michael Vick doesn't want to start, Carmelo Anthony trade, MNF
I watched the Michael Vick interview and somehow found myself convinced that Vick actually has no problem backing up Kevin Kolb. Normally, when hearing that a player will support another starter, I figure it is hogwash, but in this case my bs-meter has yet to ring. I believe this for two reasons.
1) Michael Vick lost enough in his arrest to make him rethink a lot of things. Two years of salary. His popularity. His status as an elite starter. Michael Vick can't get any of that back without playing by some other peoples' rules. Vick wants to start again, but he knows that he needs to show that he can be a team player to get a chance. He mentions in the interview that he hopes a team gives him a chance - and with his progression as a pocket passer (and probably the fact that he's self aware of his inability to take over games just by running), and the fact that he's deferring to Kolb when he could assert that he is every bit as capable as a starter, he will probably be given that opportunity.
2) Michael Vick needs a paycheck and to remain a factor in the game. You don't just forget what it was like from a few years absence.
Teams that I think may try Vick as a full time starter:
KC, Cleveland, Philly
Carmelo Anthony clearly doesn't want to stay in Denver. If he did, he would've signed an extension (like Durant did so quickly in OKC). Denver is smart for trying to get something for him, but I'm not sure how much they can. I feel like Carmelo is at the lower end of the elite tier - which is still elite, don't confuse this as a slight against him - but it doesn't appear that he will ever lead a team by himself. He just doesn't have that type of talent, defensively or intangibles. Carmelo can score, maybe better than anyone not named KD, LBJ or Dwade, but he's not going to win a championship (or compete for one) unless there is someone else leading his squad. Unfortunately Billups was a bit past his prime when he came to Denver and Iverson was wayyyy past his.
MNF tonight:
I probably won't tune in, and I should probably let Raffy handle the NFL picking in the future, considering that I thought NE would roll over NYJ or that Indianapolis would struggle. In any case, New Orleans is still the defending champs, so while I don't think last weeks game was representative of this 49ers team, I don't think they come up with the win here. NO 26-21
Power Polls tomorrow
- Jabari
1) Michael Vick lost enough in his arrest to make him rethink a lot of things. Two years of salary. His popularity. His status as an elite starter. Michael Vick can't get any of that back without playing by some other peoples' rules. Vick wants to start again, but he knows that he needs to show that he can be a team player to get a chance. He mentions in the interview that he hopes a team gives him a chance - and with his progression as a pocket passer (and probably the fact that he's self aware of his inability to take over games just by running), and the fact that he's deferring to Kolb when he could assert that he is every bit as capable as a starter, he will probably be given that opportunity.
2) Michael Vick needs a paycheck and to remain a factor in the game. You don't just forget what it was like from a few years absence.
Teams that I think may try Vick as a full time starter:
KC, Cleveland, Philly
Carmelo Anthony clearly doesn't want to stay in Denver. If he did, he would've signed an extension (like Durant did so quickly in OKC). Denver is smart for trying to get something for him, but I'm not sure how much they can. I feel like Carmelo is at the lower end of the elite tier - which is still elite, don't confuse this as a slight against him - but it doesn't appear that he will ever lead a team by himself. He just doesn't have that type of talent, defensively or intangibles. Carmelo can score, maybe better than anyone not named KD, LBJ or Dwade, but he's not going to win a championship (or compete for one) unless there is someone else leading his squad. Unfortunately Billups was a bit past his prime when he came to Denver and Iverson was wayyyy past his.
MNF tonight:
I probably won't tune in, and I should probably let Raffy handle the NFL picking in the future, considering that I thought NE would roll over NYJ or that Indianapolis would struggle. In any case, New Orleans is still the defending champs, so while I don't think last weeks game was representative of this 49ers team, I don't think they come up with the win here. NO 26-21
Power Polls tomorrow
- Jabari
Sunday, September 19, 2010
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