Monday, September 19, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today About The New ACC

Random fact of the day:
Since the ACC-Big 10 Challenge began in 1999, the Big 10 has gone 2-10 while no Big 10 team has a winning record in challenge play.


With the recent additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh (as well as discussion of Connecticut following suit), the ACC has just made a coup in the game of conference expansion roulette.  In terms of football impact, which is the most important element of conference expansion, the move is ho-hum.  Syracuse and Pittsburgh each have good football history but neither are any longer relevant, nor do they carry strong markets on their own (Penn State is bigger in Pennsylvania and New York).  They are, however, monsters on the hardwood and have solid academics that fit right into the ACC mold.  Speaking of basketball, the ACC will now have three of the top coaches in action today (with Boeheim to joing coach K and Williams).  Add Uconn, and the ACC will arguably have the top 4 college basketball coaches residing in their conference.  As dominant as the SEC has been in football for the last half-decade, I don't know if we've ever seen a conference more stacked than what the new ACC basketball line-up could be.  The Big 10 may never win another game in the ACC-Big 10 challenge.

As promised:
Most Surprising Undefeated Teams:
5. Baylor
Defeated: TCU, SF Austin
Likely defeat: Oct 15 @ Texas A&M
Baylor is now ranked, so perhaps this team is better than the school's history would suggest, but the win over TCU was a real shocker.

4. South Florida
Defeated: Notre Dame, Ball State, Florida A&M
Likely defeat: Sep 29 @ Pittsburgh
After Notre Dame's dismantling of Michigan State, South Florida's victory is even more impressive.

3. Iowa State
Defeated: Northern Iowa, Iowa, Connecticut
Likely defeat: Oct 1 v Texas
Iowa State could've (and arguably should've) lost all of these games, but has so far shown the resolve to pull out tough victories.  Games against 5 ranked teams upcoming suggests they'll be the first to fall from the ranks of undefeated.

2. Illinois
Defeated: Arkansas State, South Dakota State, Arizona State
Likely defeat: Oct 1 v Northwestern
Illinois already has a big win under their belt and has the kind of schedule that may mean a special season (10-2 is incredibly possible).  Considering Zook is still the coach... even getting this far is a hell of a surprise.

1. Clemson
Defeated: Troy, Wofford, Auburn
Likely defeat: Sept 24 v Florida State
Clemson trailed Troy at the half and only led Wofford by 1 point going into the 4th quarter.  They ended up winning both of those games, but how that translated to the superb ending Clemson had in the Auburn game, I will never know.

Apologies to FIU (who some may say would belong here), but I am in now way impressed by a win over Louisville, and thus find no reason to include the Panthers.

Rankings tomorrow, best of luck to all Big East and Big 12 fans as your conferences crumble before you.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today About Iowa State Undefeated After Three Weeks

Random fact of the day:
After Iowa State's win over Connecticut they have moved to 3-0 for the first time since 2005.  In 2005, Iowa State lost their next three games, but finished 7-5.

In celebration of Iowa State's three come-from-behind wins (by a combined 8 points), I have decided to start a segment on most surprising undefeated teams which I will begin on Monday.

As noted by several commentators, today is a very big day for the ACC.  In addition to receiving applications for membership from Pittsburgh and Syracuse, the ACC has four very big home games to hopefully establish itself as a premier conference this season.  Maryland hosts West Virginia in a very interesting matchup of undefeated teams.  Wearing much more palatable uniforms this week, Maryland is a team I'm looking forward to watching more this year, as they appear to have good talent.  Today I see West Virginia as road victors.  Prediction: WVU 35-20.

Clemson hosts Auburn, looking to stop their NCAA leading winning streak of 17 games.  Either way the Tigers are going to win this game, but I think it will be the Clemson variety that (finally) wins a high-profile game.  Prediction: Clemson 40-37.

Miami will play host to Ohio State in the game most likely to be vacated due to NCAA violations.  It's possible that neither of these teams will be permitted to play in a bowl game this year, so for now let's temper the excitement of whichever team wins.  It will be interesting to see if Ohio State plays a less conservative offense than they showed against Toledo - which almost cost them the game.  For Miami, if Jacory Harris can limit his turnovers, they will probably win this game.  Prediction: (three Harris picks) Ohio State 28-17.

Florida State hosts Oklahoma in the game of the week and a matchup of two top five teams.  I've been hearing chatter about Florida State upsetting Oklahoma by more than a touchdown - I don't see it.  Oklahoma has looked stellar and is the most balanced team in college football.  Despite Oklahoma's poor road record over the last few years, I see them winning this game.  Prediction: Oklahoma 37-30.

Enjoy the games today!  Good luck to all your teams (besides Michigan and Notre Dame, of course).

-Jabari

Saturday, September 10, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today About Arizona State and College Football Week 2

Random fact of the day:
After Arizona State's victory over Missouri last night, the Sun Devils are now 2-10 against ranked opponents since the beginning of the 2008 season, including non-conference losses the last two years to Georgia and Wisconsin by a combined 4 points.

Arizona State scores the first upset of week 2 with a significant win over Missouri.  Missouri, however, is breaking in a new quarterback this season, and while talented, probably did not deserve its preseason ranking.  I do, however, promise not to complain about the attention ASU gets in the coming poll for one victory.  We here at WGRF were unable to watch much of the game, so as to the total package ASU has to offer, I have no comments.  While watching the new Sun Devils QB, however, one 6-8 baby faced giant named Brock Oselweiler, I must say that I was very impressed.  The height is a natural advantage in terms of reading coverage and delivering passes over defenders, but I also witnessed the kid rocket a touchdown pass through a window small enough that Brett Favre might have even thought twice about trying to force a pass in it.  I don't think Arizona State has the talent to go the distance with Oregon or Stanford, but third place in the Pac 12 is certainly in reach.

In expansion news: forget the rumour I referenced before, Texas has denied that any contact was made with the Big 10.  I've also heard nonsense regarding Texas heading to the ACC or trying to start a Texas only conference with Baylor, Texas Tech, SMU, Houston and co. (Aka, SWC II).  The rampant speculation and perpetual spinning of the rumour mill suggest to me that actually nothing is happening.  Perhaps there will be no expansion this year, and if Texas A&M heads to the SEC as promised, perhaps the Big 12 will grab another team and every other conference will stay the same.  Until there is new and reputable information, however, I will refrain from discussing it any more.

In Tennis, we here at WGRF don't like to gloat, because we actually love to.  Top four seeds advancing is hardly a prediction, so we'll temper our excitement for the moment.  To advance from the Semi's, I like Federer over Djoker and Nadal over Murray.  I thought for the longest time that I was going to pick Djokovic to win it all, until I saw the ferocity of Federer's forehands in the match v Tsonga.  I don't think he can be beat today.  Murray is a solid player and, despite his struggles against John Isner, I think he will hang tough with Nadal.  Unfortunately for Murray, Nadal doesn't need to overpower his opponents like Isner does.  He can certainly be patient and is as talented as any at pulling out tough gets and staying in every point. I expect Murray v Nadal to have some of the longest rallies of any match this tournament.

What we're watching today
Alabama at Penn State.  Alabama was an even better team last year than their lofty record indicates and should spend this entire season in the top 5 (presuming they don't beat themselves).  That being said, it's never easy to break in a new QB, so I imagine Alabama will struggle a bit for these first few matchups.  If Penn State were returning an experienced team of their own, I would probably lean towards the upset, but in this case I don't see it.  The line is Alabama by 10 - my hunch is Penn State can keep it close, so I'm calling it by a touchdown.
Alabama 28-21.

South Carolina at Georgia.  I don't care for either of these teams, mostly due to my dislike of both coaches and my general aversion to all overrated SEC East squads, so I can't say I'm watching this game out of interest in either team going far this season.  Having laid out my bias on the table, however, I believe that South Carolina's front seven is even more athletic and talented than Boise St's (which roughed up Georgia all last week) and should have their way with the UGA offensive line.  In a battle of mascots, I'd take the Bulldogs, but on the football field...
South Carolina 41-23

Upsets I like:
Ball State over South Florida
BYU over Texas

Best of luck to all your teams today, excluding Michigan and Notre Dame who I'm hoping can figure out a way to both lose.
Jabari

Thursday, September 8, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today About US Open Tennis and a Surprising Andy Roddick

Random Fact of the Day:
Roger Federer is 178-1 when up 2 sets to love in a grand slam match.  The only loss was suffered to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at Wimbledon in 2011.

Federer v Tsonga is slated to start in a few moments at 7 pm ET and I still feel Tsonga has a great chance to pull the upset again. I doubt that it happens if Federer takes another big lead as he did at Wimbledon. However, I also feel that Tsonga now knows he can hang with Federer and will come out fired up. Tsonga is a powerful player and should punish Federer with his first serve. So long as he can avoid mental mistakes and not try to outplay Federer, he can win. My guess is Federer will still win this match, probably in four sets, but if Tsonga can hold serve, even if he drops a tiebreak in the first set, he can break Federer. Federer has not shown the mental fortitude this past year that was expected of him throughout his run at the top. The fact of the matter is, no longer can he win points based on reputation, when players would over-hit trying to outsmart or land a passing shot against the great Roger Federer. Federer has been exposed as merely another great (maybe even the greatest) tennis player and can be beaten without divine intervention.

Guess for final score (as futile an exercise as that may seem):

Federer 7-6 (7), 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.

In other news, Roddick made a stunning upset over Ferrer to move to the Quarterfinals. In terms of talent, it was hardly stunning, Roddick is a very good if not great tennis player with an elite serve and Ferrer was not a particularly intimidating 5 seed (same upset over Soderling? not likely). On the other hand, in terms of Roddick's continual disappointment when asked to live up to lofty expectations, it was stunning that he could put together a great game on the big stage one more time. I'm more interested to see how he responds in the next round against Rafa. I don't think he can beat Rafa (unless injuries become an issue) but if he can make it a 5 set match, I would be quite impressed - too bad Federer isn't the 2 seed, this is the year Roddick could beat him.

Donald Young did not pull out the match against Andy Murray, and was routed in straight sets instead. For the young kid there's always next year!

John Isner also had a great upset over Gilles Simon, leaving the Americans with two men left standing going into the quarterfinals. My hunch is that neither will make the semis.

Semi predictions: Federer, Rafa, Djoker, Murray. Boring, but oh so likely.

In college football expansion news, I came across a discussion in which Texas and ND were rumoured to have approached the Big 10 with conditions for their joining the league. Hopefully more will come to light on that tomorrow.

Until then, enjoy the match, should be a superb one.

- Jabari

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today About Texas A&M Joining the SEC (plus, first rankings)

Random Fact of the Day:
Since Texas A&M joined the Big XII in 1996, they have gone 0-6 against the SEC in non-conference play, including an 0-4 record in bowl games, while maintaining a winning percentage of 53.3% in conference play with Big XII opponents.  (They are also 0-3 against the Big 10 and 0-2 against the Pac 10, all in bowl games).

Now, I don't consider the college football elements of this blog to be focused on conference expansion.  I'd rather talk about the games on the field, but in light of the fact that Texas A&M was accepted only this morning by the SEC, I figure I should make a mention.
(for better insight on conference expansion, I implore you to seek out frankthetank.wordpress.com)

Subjectively, I like this move for everyone involved.  Texas A&M needs to be away from Texas, the Longhorn Network has made that painfully obvious.  In the SEC, I'm not sure how well they'll compete at the outset, but with time the Aggies should blossom into a perennial SEC west contender.  I've never considered Texas A&M to be a top tier program, but with the benefit of playing on the big stage every week (as the SEC will afford them) and the significant recruiting leverage they will now hold in Texas, A&M could reach the precipice of the second tier of college football programs (without spending much time on this, that would put them in the same category as an Auburn, Georgia or Tennessee, but not Alabama, LSU or Florida).  For the SEC, they grab another big name in college football, a fine university and the benefit of playing 4 guaranteed games per year in the state of Texas.  I imagine the added revenue from adding more (high profile) games will be great too, however, as I've read elsewhere, the SEC is locked into their most recent TV deal for quite some time, so they payout will not come quickly.


The losers of this deal are the Big 12 (as Oklahoma and OK State will almost certainly bolt West, Texas Tech and Texas could too, and Missouri will likely be grabbed by some conference) and more specifically Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State who may all be left without BCS status.  I'm assuming that Kansas finds a home considering its basketball prowess (Big East w/ TCU?), but it could be left out to dry as well.

If I had to guess what will happen (and realizing I may be way off), I would say the Pac 16 deal comes to fruition with UT, Texas Tech, OU and Ok State heading west.  I'm not sure what will happen with Missouri - I think its equally likely that they end up in the SEC or Big 10.  Kansas could go Big 10 or Big East.

Likely this subject will go over-discussed in the coming weeks, so that's all the prognostication I am willing to indulge at this time.  Now for the rankings:

1. LSU.  I think these rankings should usually serve as a guide of who I think would win in a game on a neutral field, but there is something to be said for earning one's keep and LSU took on a quality opponent on a neutral field and pushed them around for 60 minutes.  Now, this was one of the few games I got to take in this past weekend, and I realize that LSU did not overwhelm Oregon with their offense, and in fact, had it not been for turnovers on successive touches by an Oregon frosh, the game would have been much, much closer. On the other hand, Oregon has an incredibly talented roster, particularly on offense, and LSU was able to suffocate them for much of the game.  That's impressive enough to me to give LSU the #1 ranking, even if only for one week.
2. Oklahoma.  This is the most complete team in college football, imho.  More to come once OU plays somebody worthy of discussion.
3. Alabama.  Pretty big game with Penn State this week, however, Alabama should win going away.  If its closer than expected, that may be a sign of trouble in Tuscaloosa.
4. Boise St.  I kept Boise State at the top of my rankings for much of last year, and this is almost the same team, so clearly I have a bias to keep them so highly ranked.  For the time being, the polls agree with me, and while Georgia may have been severely overrated, winning on the road in the SEC is a big feat.  Kudos to the Broncos.
5. Texas A&M.  I realize the hoopla surrounding this team has as much to do with the conference move as with their talent, but I really liked the way the Aggies turned it on at the end of last year and expect them to have a monster season.  Is a Big 12 championship in the making?  Not sure, OK State and Missouri will be tough outs, Texas and Baylor may be too, plus OU and Arkansas on the schedule makes for a heck of a slate.  Given the one game against SMU, however, A&M looks solid.
6. Wisconsin.  This team is just powerful.  I expected UNLV to give them a little bit of a game, not because I think UNLV is particularly talented, but because I figured Wisconsin was the type of team that needed a few games to get rolling.  I was wrong on that one.  Badgers are clear favorites to win Big 10, though Nebraska and Ohio State will make it difficult.
7. Nebraska.  Speaking of the Cornhuskers, I've gone back and forth on how I think they're going to fare in the Big 10, considering that this will be the first season playing against new personnel, coaches and schemes.  I'm thinking they're going to do quite well, maybe a loss along the way (Wisconsin, Ohio State and Iowa the most likely games imho), but a trip to the conference championship game is likely in the cards.
8. Stanford.  This team is very good, but I'm concerned about their balance on offense.  Not sure if it matters with their schedule, Oregon might be the only game in which they're challenged, but somebody needs to step up in the backfield to take the pressure off of Luck.
9. Oklahoma State.  I'm not sure where to place this team.  I believe their offense is going to be stellar, but can they defend?  For now I give them a top 10 slot, but I realize they may just have their hands full when matched with Texas A&M and Oklahoma.
10. Oregon.  I'm not ready to give up on the Ducks after one loss to a quality opponent.  I still think they're loaded on both sides of the ball.  So long as injuries don't become a factor, as this team is not incredibly deep, the sky is the limit from here.


What we're watching today:
US Open Tennis, assuming the weather allows for it today.
Likeliest upset today: Tsonga over Federer (again...)
Least likely upset that I would like to see anyways: Young over Murray.
I like Roddick too.  I know that rooting for Roddick to win a big match is completely pointless, as he always disappoints, but I have him pulling it out today - won't get any further than that, but that's ok.

Saturday, September 3, 2011

We've Got Random Facts Today about The First Saturday of College Football.

Another season starts (and WGRF permanently returns from hibernation) with a momentous upset at a shootout in Waco (no guns involved).  Baylor rolls out to a 47-23 lead only to let TCU score 25 unanswered in the 4th quarter.  At 48-47, it looked like TCU might survive and keep their unbeaten streak alive, but alas, Robert Griffin III led a nice drive for a game winning field goal.  50-48 Baylor, TCU humbled, field rushed.
Baylor is so awful that a win over 14th ranked Texas Christian is worthy of raucous celebration.  Sad.  Not that Texas Christian deserved the ranking to begin with.  I appreciate the fact that last season they proved themselves as a top 5 team, but this year they're breaking in a new QB as well as replacing a number of starters from their league leading D from last season, and it shows.  The TCU defense was torn up by an offense that is talented, but hardly expected to score 50 points most nights, let alone against an "elite" opponent.  Inexperience at QB led to an interception on the final drive with a chance to win the game.  The announcers said the QB was experiencing cramps when he nearly threw his first pick (underthrowing the receiver by about 5 yards).  Two plays later he left a pass hanging right over the middle that was easily intercepted and there went TCU's season.  10-2 and a Liberty Bowl invite doesn't feel like much when you won the Rose Bowl just the year before.  Too bad...
Tonight we get Oregon v LSU and Georgia v Boise St, two impressive non-conference games with SEC schools involved (wasn't it just last year that people were complaining about SEC scheduling?).
I'm interested to see if Oregon's offense can still play at an elite level and if the defensive scheming we saw that held Cam Newton (somewhat) in check in the NC game will show up when the team has had a whole offseason to prepare for LSU.  LSU has tremendous talent (as they always do), but I have little faith in the Mad Hatter, particularly early in the season.  I may be putting my foot in my mouth later on this one, but I think Oregon runs away with it: 35-20.
Last time Boise went to Georgia it was a 40 point beating and they went home skittish and irrelevant.  Mark Richt is a great coach, and Georgia has brought in some good recruits the last couple of years, but I'm not buying the hype on this team just yet.  Every year we see a couple of SEC teams with inflated expectations due to coaching pedigree or name recognition - this year that may be Georgia.  I'd pick Boise to win here, they're as experienced as a team can possibly be (I'll have to check later but I believe that start 9 seniors on defense?) and have a verifiable stud at the helm in Kellen Moore.  However, considering the big stage, Mark Richt's ability to fire up his squad and the lack of blue turf, I'll call it a close one, decided by a TD.  28-21 Boise.
Prognostications aside, we won't know anything until tonight.  Let's play some football!
Jabari.